NCAAF Top 25 futures: Is Alabama really in trouble?
Alabama is the most successful program of the last 15 years, but it feels like they could be due for a down season this year, though that might be relative. They did not win the SEC West last season and then lost their top offensive and defensive players in the draft, selected No. 1 and No. 3. They always lose talent but not always at that level.
The greatest challenge this season is that is it not obvious they have the quarterback to just reload as they have in the past. As a result, we might see a return to the less dynamic pre Lane Kiffin as offensive coordinator days in Tuscaloosa. Alabama might go back to winning and being boring and at this point Nick Saban has nothing really to prove.
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide 2023 Win Total
Over 10.5 +150 / Under 10.5 -175
Even if the Crimson Tide are a little less than a sure thing this season that doesn't mean they are going to go 7-5. The markets probably see this as a 10-2 team based on those numbers, but they are probably going to be favored in every game, to be honest. The challenge with Alabama is knowing how much inexperience at the most critical position on the field is just going to keep things closer or actually lead to losses. Fading Alabama is a risky proposition, from game to game, and for the season.
Alabama might be worth the benefit of the doubt because they also get all of their toughest games at home in 2023. That begins with a game against Texas the second week of the season and includes tilts with rivals Tennessee and LSU in back-to-back weeks. That is no easy stretch but it always helps to be at home, especially if your QB play might be a little unsteady. They do have to travel to Auburn for the annual Iron Bowl, but even if the Tigers improve over the course of their first year under Hugh Freeze, taking down Alabama this season does not look to be in the cards.
Bryce Young, Mack Jones, Tua Tagoviloa, Jalen Hurts. Alabama has been on a great run of quarterback talent recently but the group they have on campus this season is much less certain. Jalen Milroe is intriguing as a run/pass threat but the Tide might be back to ground and pound featuring an offensive line and backfield filled with 5-stars. It just might work too. On defense, there is no expectation of taking a step back this season even if edge rusher Will Anderson was the best defensive player in the country the last two seasons. Alabama is well-stocked on that side. They are not going to get pushed around.
Alabama is one of my toughest calls in the Top 25. I do think they are going to nip Texas in that high-profile showdown, but there are a number of places they could fall later on in the season. Thankfully, I think the market is fairly compensating us for the risk. Remember these are regular season wins so Alabama can still get whipped by Georgia in the SEC title game and get this over. Let's lean into that.
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