NCAAF Week 4 Best Bets: Big games this weekend, finally!
If you are looking for ranked matchups, we get a bunch of them this week. Heck, the Pac-12 is offering up three of them all on its own, plus there is the highly anticipated Ohio State vs. Notre Dame game. I am thrilled we have appointment television on Saturday, but those big games are not necessarily the best bets. Here are the games and lines that most caught my eye.
Last week: 3-2
Season to Date: 7-8
NCAAF Week 4 Best Bets
Arkansas @ LSU
Razorbacks +17.5
LSU was sharp in its win last week against Mississippi State. That makes them a little overrated in this home spot though, a game where they can be pushed by an experienced, mobile quarterback in Arkansas' KJ Jefferson. The last three games in the series have been 3-point games. I am not sure this one is that close, but the Tigers will feel some game pressure.
Make sure you get that hook. LSU pulls away but it stays within reach.
UCLA @ Utah
Utes -6
Utah starting quarterback Cam Rising's status is still questionable, but they have proven they can win without him. The key here is the Utah defense. They will make it tough for UCLA to have the success they have had thus far on the ground and force mistakes by a young quarterback. It is a simple formula and one that Utah is great at executing. Probably a low-scoring game.
The number is dead at -6 and it would not surprise me if it moves. I can see a cash-out opportunity here to avoid a backdoor cover.
Appalachian State @ Wyoming
Cowboys -3
Wyoming cashed for us last week against Texas. They did not challenge for a win, but they slowed down the game enough to cover. At home, they are even more dangerous: just ask Texas Tech. This is a great battle between well-coached mid-majors. The Wyoming defense is the strongest unit on the field and that powers them to a gutty win.
The line feels very right. My gut says App State takes some chances late to go for the outright win and comes up short. There is no reason for the not to go for it.
Iowa @ Penn State
Hawkeyes +14.5
Iowa lit up Western Michigan (as I predicted ... if you want to look back). That is encouraging but this one is all about the defense. That group is going to keep this one close throughout. The Hawkeyes have won the last two in the series so there is some confidence there. I am not seeing an upset, but as long as Iowa can have success defending the run they can turn this game into a rock fight decided by a single score.
I love that hook but even if it drops under the current number I see some value. I see no more than a 10-point game.
UCF @ Kansas State
Over 52
I know I have not had as much success on totals so far. This is the Big 12 debut for UCF and I think we get a fun one. Yes, that was not the case with their recent trip to Boise State, but K-State looks ripe for being taken advantage of after giving up 30 points to Mizzou last week. Gus Malzahn is great a developing offensive game plans and KSU is great at responding. These teams can trade scores, even though their approaches are different.
This is going to be a sneak fun game. Look for both teams to get into the 30s.
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