Three reasons Michigan can beat Alabama in the CFP semifinals
College Football Playoff No. 1 Michigan (13-0) plays No. 4 Alabama (12-1) in Monday's first semifinal at the Rose Bowl. Per ESPNBet, the Wolverines (-1.5) are a slight favorite.
How does Michigan avoid a second consecutive upset in the CFP semis? Here are three reasons why the Wolverines will win on New Year's Day. For three reasons why Alabama will win, click here.
1. J.J. McCarthy handles the pressure
The moment shouldn't be too big for quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who's playing in his third CFP semifinals. Bama's defensive line, particularly star edge rusher Dallas Turner, is an excellent test for Michigan's offensive line, but McCarthy has proven capable of handling pressure well this season. Per data from Pro Football Focus, the junior QB was under pressure on 29.9 percent of his dropbacks this season and went 42-of-67 (62.7 percent) for 614 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions, posting an excellent 108.7 NFL passer rating.
He has a strong connection with wideouts Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson and tight end Colston Loveland, and McCarthy must hit on his deep attempts to his trusted weapons. The Tide are susceptible to busted coverages, as LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels showed on this 46-yard score to Malik Nabers.
Only Daniels threw a more accurate deep ball than McCarthy among quarterbacks with at least 20 throws of 20 yards or more this season. And while McCarthy isn't particularly known for his running ability, he needs to use his legs against a Tide defense that struggles to stop mobile quarterbacks. In their miraculous 27-24 win over Auburn, Tigers quarterback Payton Thorne gashed Bama for 85 rushing yards on 11 carries. On 16 quarterback scrambles this season (11 of which came while under pressure), McCarthy gained 145 yards, seven first downs and forced six missed tackles. (h/t PFF)
2. Depth along the defensive line
Michigan's defense will give Bama everything it can handle. Wolverines corners Mike Sainristil, Will Johnson and Josh Wallace will force Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe to throw into tight windows to wideouts Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond. Linebacker Michael Barrett can spy Milroe so that he can't break free for big gains as a runner.
Here's Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper masterfully tracking Milroe in the open field and taking him down for a loss, followed by a pair of plays by Barrett (No. 23) that showcase his relentless pursuit.
But arguably the biggest reason why Michigan can have success against Bama is its depth along the defensive line. Plenty of times we've seen SEC teams overpower opponents in bowl games by wearing them down at the line of scrimmage, which might not be the case in the Rose Bowl. The Wolverines have eight linemen who played in all 13 games, and that list doesn't include perhaps the team's best interior pass rusher, Mason Graham, or edge rusher TJ Guy.
Per BCFToys, Michigan's defense has the country's highest busted drive, or an opponent's series that produces zero or negative yards, rate. Alabama's offense ranks 105th in busted drives, and if that trend continues, the Wolverines' defensive front will be guaranteed to stay fresh.
3. Blake Corum exploits Bama's rush defense
Bama's rush defense has struggled at times, allowing over four yards per carry to running backs Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss) and Jonathon Brooks (Texas) earlier this season, as well as 244 rushing yards and 5.8 yards per carry against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Tigers running back Jarquez Hunter, who finished the game with 93 rushing yards, gashed the right side of Bama's defensive front early on a 42-yard gain to set Auburn up inside the red zone.
Corum leads Michigan with 1,028 rushing yards and has the country's most scrimmage touchdowns (24).
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