NCAAF News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Newsletter

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban celebrates after defeating the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Three reasons Alabama can beat Michigan in the CFP semifinals

By Eric Smithling | Last updated 12/30/23

College Football Playoff No. 1 Michigan (13-0) plays No. 4 Alabama (12-1) in Monday's first semifinal at the Rose Bowl. Per ESPNBet, the Wolverines (-1.5) are a slight favorite.

However, Alabama will have something to say about that. Here are three reasons why the Tide will emerge victorious on New Year's Day.

1. Big play ability on offense

Quarterback Jalen Milroe's in-season improvement has been one of the most fascinating developments of the 2023 season, particularly his big-play ability. Among quarterbacks with at least 20 deep — or throws 20 yards or more downfield — pass attempts, Milroe has the third-highest completion percentage (53.1 percent), trailing only LSU's Jayden Daniels (63.6 percent) and his counterpart on Monday, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy (54.5 percent).

Jalen Milroe adds to the Alabama Crimson Tide lead with this touchdown pass! #RollTide #Bama #OleMissvsBAMA #CFB pic.twitter.com/DZKStxGWaz
— CFBMuse (@CFBMuse) September 23, 2023

Just as concerning for the Wolverines is Milroe's ability as a runner. Throughout the season, he also grew more comfortable rushing. On these two runs — the first against Mississippi State and the next against LSU — Milroe wasted no time accelerating after deciding to run.

Reel Analytics noted it took him three seconds to reach a max speed of 20.8 miles per hour against the Bulldogs on a 53-yard touchdown and less than four seconds to reach a top speed of 20.9 miles per hour against the Tigers on a 23-yard score.

It only took 3 seconds for Alabama QB Jalen Milroe (@JalenMilroe) to reach a max speed of 20.8 mph on this 53-yard touchdown. #ReelSpeed

: @espn

https://t.co/orrD059ykP pic.twitter.com/fgbjKjrKwP
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) October 2, 2023

WATCH: @AlabamaFTBL QB Jalen Milroe (@JalenMilroe) accelerated to a max speed of 20.9 mph in less than four seconds on this 23-yard touchdown. #ReelSpeed #RollTide

: @CBSSportsCFB

https://t.co/orrD059ykP pic.twitter.com/4GUk3J89VD
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) November 7, 2023

2. Pass rush led by Dallas Turner

A potential top-10 pick in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft, Turner has the capability of being a game-wrecker against the Wolverines.

Here he is in the videos below, first against Ole Miss this season and then Georgia in 2021, making a couple of huge plays in the red zone.

Dallas Turner sack forced fumble

He took over to end the game pic.twitter.com/uovfPHTZo5
— RanDynasty (@ran_dynasty) September 23, 2023

— TimeoutSPORTS__ (@TimeoutSPORTS3) December 4, 2021

On a second-and-8 from the 10-yard line against the Rebels, Turner blew past the offensive tackle and sacked quarterback Jaxson Dart, forcing a fumble in the process.

In the 2021 SEC Championship against the Bulldogs, he ended a promising drive by sacking quarterback Stetson Bennett on a third-and-3 from the 11-yard line.

If Michigan has a weakness on its offensive line, it's at the tackle position. Per data from Pro Football Focus , tackles Karsen Barnhart and LaDarius Henderson were credited with giving up six sacks and 48 of the 94 total pressures allowed by Wolverines pass-blockers this season. That could force Michigan to keep either running backs or tight ends as blockers, which would limit McCarthy's options on passing downs.

3. Coaching

The biggest advantage the Tide have is their head coach. Bama's Nick Saban is 6-1 in the CFP semis while Michigan's Jim Harbaugh is 0-2, including the Wolverines' upset 51-45 loss to TCU in last year's Fiesta Bowl. Saban always has his teams ready for big games. Meanwhile, the semifinal stage has been too big for Harbaugh the last two seasons, including in 2021 when Michigan was overwhelmed by Georgia, 34-11 in the Orange Bowl.

More must-reads: