On day two of the 2025 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions made a big move when they traded their 2025 third-round pick and two 2026 third-round picks to the Jacksonville Jaguars to move up to the 70th pick and take Arkansas receiver Isaac TeSlaa.
Since then, there have been quite a few takes on that pick. The take we're going to focus on today is whether or not TeSlaa was one of the biggest reaches of all time.
We're going to pit our Lions beat writer, Mike Payton, against our College Football editor and draft expert, Travis May. Payton will argue why it wasn't a massive reach, and May will argue why it was. Then you can decide who's right.
Why was it one of the biggest reaches ever
Firstly–although less important than other factors–TeSlaa ranked 168th on the industry consensus big board coming into the NFL Draft and the Lions selected him 70th. While never completely accurate, industry consensus boards (yielded via large sample mock draft data) do typically successfully predict between 80 and 85 percent of the players who will be off the board through the first 100 picks every year. TeSlaa obviously went ahead of expected schedule, objectively more so than any other prospect in the class based on the consensus board.
More importantly though, TeSlaa never posted a season above predictive production metric thresholds against Division I competition, won with a very limited route tree, averaged extremely minimal separation even with his impressive speed, and caught just four receptions in the red zone over the last two seasons despite his 6'4" 214-pound frame.
Let's start with the route tree, separation, and lack of expected usage given his physical measurements. He played Wing T quarterback in high school, so he had to begin his career in Division II at Hillsdale College back in 2020 where he converted to wide receiver. It makes sense that it took him a while to develop his route running and separation given he didn't play the position prior to college, but 2024 was his fifth year playing the position.
Despite last season being his fifth year playing wide receiver he was still only successful on a handful of routes, and much of his production came against soft zone or off-man coverage out of the slot (80% of his targets last year) where he didn't have to force himself open at all.
Then there's the predictive production threshold issue. For those unfamiliar, NFL analytics departments (or at least the teams that actually listen to them) care significantly about data driven predictive modeling for prospects. Each team has their own proprietary metrics and models, but they're all built on a variety of the same core efficiency and adjusted volume metrics that have been proven to predict whether or not wide receivers can produce at the NFL level. We'll just go over a few (of the many) independent measures that TeSlaa fell short on in his two years that really mattered.
Isaac TeSlaa never eclipsed even two yards per route run. Typical drafted wide receivers easily coast past this mark. He never reached even 20% receiving yard market share for Arkansas or a 20% dominator rating (that includes percentage of team touchdown production). Successful early round wide receivers reach 30%. His peak of 1.32 yards per team pass attempt is nearly 50% below what the typical drafted NFL wide receiver reaches in college. The list goes on and on forever like this. Pick any metric of meaningful production and TeSlaa falls ridiculously below it.
"Surely his athleticism has to be good for something though, right?"
Nope. Not if the Lions expect him to ever be a meaningful contributor to offensive success. In the last four years alone (when the NFL switched to a 17-game schedule) there have been 11 wide receivers selected inside the first three rounds that tested at a 9.0 or above in their relative athletic score (RAS) while never reaching requisite predictive metric thresholds for projected NFL success:
- Ricky Pearsall (9.90 RAS, 49ers)
- Xavier Legette (9.66 RAS, Panthers)
- Luke McCaffrey (9.56 RAS, Commanders)
- Adonai Mitchell (9.99 RAS, Colts)
- Jonathan Mingo (9.86 RAS, Panthers)
- Michael Wilson (9.52 RAS, Cardinals)
- Christian Watson (9.96 RAS, Packers)
- Tyquan Thornton (9.77 RAS, Patriots)
- George Pickens (9.35 RAS, Steelers)
- Alec Pierce (9.82 RAS, Colts)
- Kadarius Toney (9.0 RAS, Giants)
Two of the wide receivers on the list above have eclipsed 650 yards in a season. One has logged more than 850. In that four year span there have been 189 individual wide receivers seasons logged with at least 650 yards. 124 with 850 yards. If we go back further in time, the hit rate gets even worse for this kind of profile. These types of receivers historically stick on NFL rosters for a long while as teams force themselves to believe they can get more out of them long-term, but seldom ever do.
In conclusion, Isaac TeSlaa's profile checks exactly zero meaningful boxes. His athletic profile should keep him in the league for a while because some NFL teams are woefully obsessed with his archetype, but his limitations across the board scream "reach" at pick 70 for the Lions.
Why it was not
Here's the thing: I'm not going to fully contend that it wasn't a reach. It was in the sense that this is a player that nobody expected to go this high. It was also a lot to give up, and I won't argue there one iota. But there are a lot of nuances to this whole thing.
First, the Lions aren't the only team that liked this guy. Yes, he was quiet at Arkansas in terms of production, but once teams got a look at him in Mobile, he hit everyone's radar. That also got him invited to the NFL Combine, too. He looked good there, by the way.
Then, during the meeting process, he was brought in for 30 visits by the Lions, Broncos, Rams, Bills, and Saints. He also had Combine formals, pro day meetings, and virtual meetings with other teams, too.
The Lions didn't just take a guy in the third round; they took a guy who had been generating buzz and moving up the draft board for months at that point.
ESPN NFL insider Jeremy Fowler reported after the draft that he worked himself to being a player that was coveted.
"But Isaac TeSlaa is a prime example of why the predraft process matters. TeSlaa was off the draft radar and had to scramble to get an invite to the Hula Bowl, which led to an invite to the Senior Bowl. He performed well at both, then caught scouts' attention at the combine by running a 4.43-second 40 at 6-foot-4 and 214 pounds."
"Once teams started to see him up close, they scheduled interviews with him and did their research on why he didn't get the ball at Arkansas. It wasn't because of attitude or work ethic issues -- his personality shined in the process, becoming Detroit GM Brad Holmes' favorite player in the draft. Some attributed his low production in college to lack of communication and inexperience at quarterback."
If the Lions don't move up to get him at 70, he's probably gone by the time they picked at 102. The Saints picked at 71 and were interested, the Bills picked at 72 and were interested, and the Broncos picked at 74 and were interested.
The Broncos are the big one because TeSlaa was on their board along with a bunch of other receivers, and they struck out on the majority of the other guys. When TeSlaa went off the board, they went with Pat Bryant, whom they didn't seem to have had a meeting with.
To end the argument, I'll agree that the assets moved were a lot and make you a little nervous that if this fails, it could be Holmes' biggest gaffe. But the idea that he got picked too early doesn't hold a lot of water since there was a lot of interest built up on him.
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