Aaron Nola's inconsistencies outweigh rewards for Phillies

On Wednesday night, Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola won his 10th game of the season as part of the Phillies' 9-4 victory at the Toronto Blue Jays. It's the fifth time in Nola's nine major league seasons that he's reached double-digit wins.

However, Nola can chalk up this decision to the offense, which finally came alive with nine runs and 11 hits after a three-game slump. Nola turned in another pedestrian outing, allowing four runs over five innings with seven strikeouts and four walks. His ERA this season is 4.58, the highest in the Phillies' starting rotation.

The Phillies will be facing a dilemma this offseason. Nola is a free agent and is expected to earn even more than his current five-year, $56-million contract. But given his performance over the last five seasons, is he really worth it?

Nola's current contract was signed in the 2018/19 offseason following a career year. At age 25, he won 17 games, his ERA was 2.37, and he finished third on the National League Cy Young Award ballot. An extension was a no-brainer. But since 2019, Nola's record is 47-42, and his cumulative ERA is 3.96. He hasn't won more than 12 games in any of those five seasons.

Granted, Nola has solid numbers in several categories across that time. Since 2019, according to Stathead from Baseball Reference, he's started more games than any major league pitcher, while also ranking third in innings pitched and second in strikeouts. He finished seventh in N.L. Cy Young voting in 2020, and fourth in 2022. But only six pitchers have lost more games and allowed more hits than Nola in that span, only three have allowed more earned runs, and just five have surrendered more home runs.

While he pitched two stellar games in the postseason last year, his one NLCS start and two World Series starts were poor. After pitching 12.2 shutout innings in his first two playoff starts, Nola didn't make it out of the fifth inning in any of the next three games. His ERA over those last three starts was a brutal 9.69. In game two of the NLCS in San Diego, Nola blew a 4-0 second-inning lead. In game one of the World Series in Houston, he allowed five runs over the first three innings.

Nola isn't getting any younger, either. As previously mentioned, this is his ninth major league season. He turned 30 in June. While he's still reliable in terms of innings pitched and strikeouts, he has yet to regain his 2018 form, and has been supplanted by Zack Wheeler as the starting ace. The Phillies need to think it over this offseason before automatically giving Nola another extension. Their money could be better spent elsewhere.