The Milwaukee Brewers would prefer not to deal Corbin Burnes. However, being a small market team and Burnes likely commanding a 6-year, $180 million-type deal, the Cy Young winner is likely destined to play elsewhere.
The logical move is to trade Burnes for a big return. After seeing what a Josh Hader did to the Brewers in-season, that option is likely out. With just two years of control before hitting free agency, the best time to deal Burnes is now. It gives the team acquiring Burnes two years of control for sure and a chance to work on an extension. The Brewers can require a bigger return than with just one year remaining before free agency.
For the Brewers getting a strong return would fit a timeline with the current prospects ready to hit the majors in the Brewers system – Joey Wiemer, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick. Also don’t forget about Jackson Chourio waiting in the wings, While next year could be a mini-rebuild, a large Burnes return mixed with young players and prospects on the MLB cusp, the future could be stocked with a shrewd trade.
Who are the teams that matchup best for a potential Burnes trade and what would the return look like? Here are some potential moves I can see that make sense:
Best matches
Texas Rangers
The Rangers may be the best fit for a match with the Brewers in a Burnes deal. They are trying to be in win-now mode. Last offseason they signed Kyle Seager and Marcus Semien to huge deals. A trade for Burnes would immediately help the Rangers as he’d be the clear ace of the rotation. The Rangers also have the farm to intrigue the Brewers with 6 top-100 MLB prospects in the minors.
The headliner and a great fit for the Brewers would be Ranger’s top-prospect Josh Jung (No. 36 overall) as a 3B has been a need in Milwaukee for over 25 years. RHP Owen White (No. 59 prospect) would be another great target for the Milwaukee. White is a 6-3 right-hander who is on the cusp of MLB. The return for Burnes would be Jung, White and MI Luisangel Garcia who is projected to be up in 2024 and another throw-in prospect.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are in a strong position to make a move. They have a solid farm system of prospects to get win-now talent to surround Julio Rodriguez and other young Mariners with talent. The Mariners could deal young talent and with a Burnes acquisition have an electric rotation. Add Burnes to Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray at the head of the rotation. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are two young starters who were very good for Seattle. The Brewers could try and get one of the two or two pitchers nearing MLB potentially this year in Eddie Hancock (No. 2 prospect) and Bryce Miller (No. 6). Add in 3B/1B Tyler Locklear who is in A-Ball but would be ready in 2025. A Gilbert-Hancock-Locklear and throw in Starlin Aguilar (3B) and it could be a win-win for both teams.
Good match
Baltimore Orioles
Are the Orioles ready to make the plunge to make a huge splash to contend? They have the farm to make a Burnes deal. But they may not want to part with top prospects who seem to be in line with young rising stars Gunnar Henderson and catcher Adley Rutschman. The Orioles like the Rangers have six of the top-100 MLB prospects.
The Brewers could ask for 3 of 4 of the Orioles top-7 prospects. Grayson Rodriguez is the No. 4 prospect in all of baseball and is a big 6-5 RHP who is nearing the big leagues. Jordan Westburg (No. 76) and Coby Mayo are two 3B prospects and LHP DL Hall (No. 87) would be a great haul for the Brewers. Rodriguez-Mayo-Hall and a big league reliever would be a nice deal, but I am not sure the Orioles want to go into all-in mode but rather let their prospects gel together.
Not likely but possible
New York Mets
Brett Baty is a 3B of the future currently for the Mets. He got some time with the Mets this year. If the Mets’ Jacob DeGrom leaves in free agency, Burnes would be quite a countermove. I am not sure the Mets have what it takes either. If the Mets add a package of C Kevin Parada (No. 3 prospect) and SS Ronny Mauricio with another prospect it could spark a deal. The Mets only have one pitcher in their top-10 prospects. If the Mets could add an arm the Brewers liked also that could be enough to get a deal done.
New York Yankees
I am not sure the Yankees have the system to get Burnes. If they trade Oswald Peraza, Austin Wells and add-in Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil then perhaps but I am not sure the Yankees have what the Brewers are looking for in a trade package for Burnes. Schmidt was a top-Yankee prospect, but he has been used in the bullpen. With Milwaukee they could build him back to being a starter and he’d be inserted into the rotation quickly.
After falling short again, they might be willing to give up a huge return for Burnes to help get them back to another World Series.
In conclusion
The Brewers could try for “another bite at the apple” with Corbin Burnes. However, to get the best return the Brewers could bring in a haul with two years of control. The Brewers likely feel better of their chances to sign Brandon Woodruff long-term. While it isn’t fun dealing a Cy Young award winner, the Brewers should get a huge haul if they pull the trigger on a Burnes deal.
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