Midway through the 2022 season, Philadelphia Phillies fans had a moment of realization. The Phillies bullpen was, dare I say it... good?
After years of blown saves, late-inning losses, and close contests that turned into tire fires, Philadelphia finally had a strong core of relievers who could effectively close out ballgames.
Over the past few weeks, unfortunately, things haven't looked quite so rosy. Seranthony Domínguez hit the injured list for a three weeks with triceps soreness and struggled in one of his first games back. Corey Knebel is done for the season. David Robertson has been showing signs of fatigue.
One reason for optimism was the return of Sam Coonrod. Coonrod had been on the IL all season with a shoulder strain. He returned on Aug. 19, and the Phillies hoped he could resume his role from last year as a solid middle-innings reliever.
Across his first four appearances, it looked like that might be the case. In five innings, he held the opposition scoreless, striking out six and allowing just one hit.
Since then, however, he has given up eight runs in seven games. In his most recent outing, he allowed two runs to the Atlanta Braves. His ERA has ballooned to 5.40.
Sad to say, it looks that Coonrod has not yet returned to full strength. His two primary pitches, a four-seam fastball and a sinker, have lost both velocity and movement. His four-seam in particular has been a far less effective out-pitch.
Meanwhile, he seems to have replaced his slider with a cutter. The new pitch is a few miles-per-hour faster than his slider, and so there is significantly less of a difference between Coonrod's fastballs and his go-to secondary pitch. The new cutter, therefore, has been less successful at generating swings and misses.
Ultimately, it seems like hitters are just seeing Coonrod a whole lot better. They are swinging at more pitches in the strike zone and fewer pitchers outside the strike zone, leading to more contact and fewer whiffs. Accordingly, he has gotten fewer strikeouts and allowed more walks. His strikeout-to-walk ratio, which was excellent in 2021, is now well below average.
Thankfully, Coonrod has managed to hold opponents to a low batting average this year, which has helped him survive with such high walk rate. However, if he continues to allow contact at such a high rate, that isn't going to last. Eventually, his batting average on balls in play is going to rise, and more batted balls against him are going to drop for hits. And if he keeps walking so many batters, those hits are going to become RBI more often than not.
If Coonrod wants to succeed at the big league level, he needs to get his strikeout rate back up and his walk rate back down. In order to do so, he needs his fastballs to blow past opposing batters and his secondary pitches to trip them up.
Hopefully those improvements will come with time as Coonrod's shoulder continues to hea;. But he's running out of time to get back on track for the 2022 season. If Sam Coonrod is going to pitch with the Phillies into October, he needs to start pitching better – and he needs to start now.
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