This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into 2024 spring training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
Jorge Barrosa has been in the D-backs organization since July 2017. While it took a while for him to move up the system, he has made steady progress over the past three seasons. The D-backs added him to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect him from the 2022 Rule 5 Draft, but he spent the entire 2023 season with Triple-A Reno. There he hit .295 with 13 home runs and nearly as many walks (80) as strikeouts (82). In total, he put up a 110 wRC+ with Reno and has earned an opportunity to compete for the fourth outfielder role.
Barrosa currently ranks 15th on the Top 30 D-backs Prospects list entering the 2024 season. The expectation is he'll have a chance to compete for the fourth outfielder role, but lose the battle to Jake McCarthy to begin the season. He'd be the first outfielder brought up from Reno if there is an opening due to injuries or performances. D-backs general manager Mike Hazen stated previously that it's tough to evaluate hitters in the extreme environments of Amarillo and Reno whose offensive game isn't rooted in plate discipline. That is not the case for Barrosa, who has drawn 145 walks compared to 162 strikeouts over the last two seasons. That is a sample size of over 1000 plate appearances at the Double-A level or higher, covering his Age 21 and 22 seasons.
The Projection
Barrosa is projected to get 29 starts and total 117 plate appearances in his debut season. Offensively, he's expected to put up a .236/.313/.356 triple slash with a 20.5% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate.
That accentuates the main strength and weakness in his prospect profile. Barrosa is very disciplined hitter for his age and generally makes a good amount of line drive contact. However due to his stature, he is projected to have below-average power. That being said, his strengths align well with his home ballpark, which heavily inflates doubles and triples.
Why Barrosa Could Beat This Projection
It's not inconceivable that Barrosa gets more playing time than the projection gives. Based on the current construction of the roster, there is an argument that he better fits the fourth outfielder profile as a switch hitter who will bat right-handed vs. left-handed pitchers.
The outfield situation is a bit fluid, even with Corbin Carroll and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. entrenched in the lineup. Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy do not have a strong enough track record at the plate that a poor performance could see them avoid getting demoted to Triple-A like last season.
Additionally he can also provide coverage against right-handed pitchers, where he would flip to bat left-handed. Not only could he cover right field against lefties, but also left field as well when Gurriel or Carroll needs a rest day.
Why Barrosa Might Not Beat This Projection
The main argument for this would be simply that Barrosa is completely overmatched against major league pitchers. It seems unlikely given the solid plate discipline numbers considering age and level, but the quality of pitches are significantly tougher than Amarillo and Reno. That may result in an adjustment period.
Additionally, he might not be the first guy on the depth chart to bring up from Reno. Dominic Fletcher was brought up twice during the 2023 season over Barrosa, although you could make the argument he was far from ready. He'll need a very strong spring to crack the Opening Day roster and opportunities simply might not come by. It's unlikely considering the D-backs don't have a third reliable starter in the outfield and are mixing and matching to fill the gaps.
Looking at Barrosa's Triple-A splits last season, he only hit two home runs in 150 PA but also put up an impressive .380 OBP with 23 walks and 24 strikeouts. The D-backs might want more impact in these games and could turn to other options.
Summary
If the D-backs want a right-handed bat to face lefties as their fourth outfielder, Barrosa makes the most sense if they don't make any further additions to the outfield. With a strong track record of plate discipline and a good defensive outfield presence, he should earn opportunities to showcase his skills at the major league level. The D-backs may turn to options with more major league experience, with McCarthy holding 736 career PA and an OPS above .700 vs. LHP. But if Barrosa has a strong spring, he could very well make the Opening Day roster over McCarthy.
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