Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2023: TJ Friedl

From 2021 to 2023, Friedl produced a respectable .275/.339/.456 line in 128 games. This year, however, he’s taken it up a notch, batting .326 while getting on base roughly 38% of the time in 42 games. Moreover, about one-third of his hits went for extra bases, averaging one extra-base hit every three games. So while singles are fairly common for Friedl, he’ll occasionally have an XBH.

He’s also kept his strikeout rate low, striking out every five plate appearances or so (19.6%). His whiff rate is similar, sitting at roughly 18%, according to Baseball Savant. Subsequently, a lower strikeout or whiff rate not only results in more balls in play, but also gives speedy players like TJ a better chance for an infield hit. Furthermore, some weakly hit balls end up finding a hole. Generally speaking, then, the less a player strikes out, the more opportunities they’ll have at the dish. Even when Friedl’s not hitting the ball hard, his zone contact rate stands roughly at 86% this year, giving him a better chance to put the ball in play or draw a walk. With RISP, TJ Friedl owns a .294 average this year in 42 games. So he offers more than just a high batting average.

Discipline

Aside from a .377 OBP in 42 games, Friedl chases one out of four pitches outside the zone on average. It’s mostly a combination of splitters, cutters, and an occasional fastball, according to FanGraphs (LHP/RHP; although he’s faced mostly the latter up to this point). On the other hand, Friedl is slightly better at laying off changeups and curveballs outside the zone, despite a small sample size. His ability to work the count or at least stay in the at-bat is also evident by an average of 3.98 pitches per plate appearance in 2023 and 3.89 overall. Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo, known for their good eye at the plate, possess similar numbers so far this year at 3.98 and 3.88, respectively.

Good discipline isn’t merely about drawing walks though. In fact, it’s correlated with contact skills and good hitter’s counts. Most hitters, for example, prefer not to hit pitches outside the strike zone as doing so may increase their chances of striking out. Hitters also prefer 2-0 and 2-1 counts over 0-1 and 0-2, because now pitchers are more likely to throw a non-quality strike. The moral of the story? A good eye at the plate gives hitters a better idea of where the ball is going, which in turn may boost their contact rate and put them in more favorable counts. It also lowers their chase rate and subsequently, their whiff rate.

In addition to solid contact skills, good discipline is nearly a must for any fantasy baseball sleeper in 2023, or any player for that matter. After all, these two skill sets usually have a strong connection with one another.

Speed

Friedl’s strongest asset is arguably his sprint speed, as he currently ranks in the 84th percentile in MLB. Meanwhile, in 42 games, he’s swiped six bags (6-for-6) and collected 70 total bases. What’s even more impressive, perhaps, is Friedl’s zero in the GIDP column.

So speed isn’t only useful for stolen bases, but also for runs, batting average, and extra-base hits. Essentially, it allows hitters to get to home plate faster by turning singles into doubles, doubles into triples, etc. Even with a force-out or non-successful double play, a hitter is more likely to score simply by reaching base. And a good sprint speed, of course, increases the batter’s chance for an infield hit, when applicable.

Summary

With great speed, a good eye, and strong contact skills, TJ Friedl provides depth to many fantasy lineups. Look out for AVG, BB, SB, and R as his primary means of production. Don’t expect as much from the HR category though.

For more fantasy baseball sleepers in 2023, check out the on-base machine and fairly clutch hitter, Anthony Rendon from the Los Angeles Angels.