Guardians, Braves pacing league stats post-break

The pitching and offense of the Cleveland Guardians and Atlanta Braves have been statistically head and shoulders ahead of their league counterparts since returning from Seattle for the 2023 All-Star Break. 

In the second half of the season thus far, the Guardians hold a comfortable lead in team ERA. More than half a run lower than second place, they have a 2.63 ERA as a unit. They have maintained that mark through the first 30 games since the break but only have managed a 13-17 record. 

They have outscored opponents by nine runs since the break but have lost four one-run games, among other low-scoring affairs. During the year, they are led by Aaron Civale's 2.34 ERA over 77.0 innings pitched, Tanner Bibee's 2.90 over 108.2 innings and Logan Allen's 3.33 over 97.1 innings. 

On the flip side, Atlanta has a run differential of more than 60 higher than the next best, former Braves legend Freddie Freeman's Los Angeles Dodgers. Over the Braves' past 60 total games, and has had a +59 differential since the break. They have inverted Cleveland's record, going 17-13 over their past 30. 

The offense for the Braves is led by multiple MVP candidates and good role players. The team's lowest OPS+ from any individual is Eddie Rosario's 97, meaning he is 3% worse than the league average, as 100 is average. 

All eight other qualified batters and noticeably above average, as Michael Harris II (108), Orlando Arcia (108), Marcell Ozuna (111), Ozzie Albies (120), Austin Riley (123), Sean Murphy (143), Matt Olsen (163) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (164) doing more than just carrying their own weight. 

With drastically different levels of success, big bat vs. big arm, the two teams are headed down different paths in 2023. The Braves not only have a 99.9% chance to make the playoffs, according to Baseball Reference. Cleveland on the other hand has a 10% chance of making the playoffs.

The Braves are more likely to win the World Series a whole (23.4%) than the Guardians are to even make the playoffs.