After showing signs of decline in 2022, one of the premier sluggers of this generation bounced back with a strong 2023. That slugger has now turned his rebound into a nice payday, as MLB Network insider Jon Heyman reports that J.D. Martinez will sign with the New York Mets. Martinez will make $12 million on the one-year deal. He should provide some reliable power from the DH spot to complement Pete Alonso in the lineup as he enters his contract year.
J.D. Martinez Signs with Mets
J.D. Martinez Thrived in Los Angeles
In 113 games last season, Martinez hit 33 homers, drove in 103 runs, and produced an OPS of .893 in his sole year in Dodger blue. Martinez’s offensive performance was 34 percent better than the league average (per OPS+) and led him to his third straight All-Star game (and sixth in his career).
Martinez’s season looks even better when viewing his underlying metrics. He ranked in the 96th percentile or better in Average Exit Velocity, Barrel %, Hard-Hit %, xSLG, and Sweet-Spot %. Plus, his xWOBA ranked in the 91st percentile.
Martinez gets paid to slug, and these metrics indicate that his actual numbers (HR total and .572 SLG) were not fluky or lucky. The Mets likely felt comfortable signing Martinez at age 36 after looking at his metrics.
Martinez and Red Flags in 2022
At some point, age will catch up to Martinez, but the fact that he made such elite contact last year provides faith that serious regression will happen later down the road. Signing older players can be risky, but these metrics help teams feel better or more confident in their investments.
The metrics are further important because Martinez showed some signs of potential decline in 2022. He slugged only .448 with 16 homers and particularly struggled after a great first half. This was his worst production since his days with the Houston Astros. The underlying metrics also declined from the previous year.
Martinez needs to slug to provide value. He does not run well, struck out well above average last season, and does not play defense. He appeared in the field in just 12 total innings last season. Teams don’t like clogging up the DH spot with one main player, but will do it for elite production. Martinez, historically, has been that guy.
If Martinez produced similarly with the Dodgers last year, he likely would not have been a hot commodity this winter. However, his 2023 likely extended his career by a few more years. The Mets will sign J.D. Martinez hoping he unlocked something in LA and will take the squad to another level.
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