MLB best bets, 2 Picks and a Prop for 7/3: Doubling down on the Braves

Friday did not close well, but we did hit on the Astros underdog play at +145 so all was not lost. Speaking of being lost, it is OK if you forgot about MLB a little over the weekend, what with NBA free agency and holiday celebrations. 

Today we get a typically lighter Monday schedule and there were some day games too. Tomorrow is the day to take a break though (if you want) with most of the MLB action occurring during daylight hours. 

Tonight we have eight MLB games to choose from. There is only one interesting series though with the Orioles visiting the Yankees.  

Bet Tracking

Favorite Picks: 20-18 (-23.5 Units)
Underdog Pick: 15-22 (-35 Units)
Prop Pick: 15-23 (-63.5 Units)

Winning Days: 17 of 38 

MLB Picks for Monday July 3

Favorite
Atlanta Braves -140 (at Cleveland Guardians)

The Braves have won eight in a row, including a sweep of the Miami Marlins at home over the weekend. If you are looking to fade them on the road, you should know they are 26-12 away from Truist Park this season. Bryce Elder starts tonight and while he is not a household name, he was just named to the All-Star team. Cleveland rookie Gavin Williams has been mostly good over a couple of starts but he is taking on the best lineup in the majors. 

Underdog
Seattle Mariners +120 (at San Francisco Giants)

This one could be a bit of a bias because I saw Logan Webb get hit hard live in his last appearance in Toronto. He is better at home, but I don't see how you justify the premium that is being required tonight. Rookie Bryan Woo has been very good since his first outing. He is making batters miss and keeping the ball in the park. Seattle is off a series win against Tampa too so the timing feels right. 

Prop
Gavin Williams Over 3.5 Earned Runs +125

This is a double down on that top play I presume. Atlanta has a great lineup, certainly better than what Williams has seen in his first couple of MLB starts — Oakland and Kansas City. Atlanta hits everyone and eventually, they get to the rookie. It wouldn't surprise me if this cashes after two innings. Maybe the bullpen lets in a couple of inherited runners too.