MLB futures: How many home runs will Cody Bellinger hit in 2024?
When we last discussed Cody Bellinger back in January, it concerned what team had the most favorable odds to him to their roster. So now that the Chicago Cubs have officially resigned him, we can turn our focus to a different set of odds: How many home runs he will hit in 2024.
After the last couple of seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers showed signs of decline for the 2017 Rookie of the Year and 2019 NL MVP, Bellinger rebounded in his first campaign with the Cubs to slash .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs, the third-most of his career. As such, DraftKings has listed the over/under for HRs the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year will hit this season at 23.5, with both the Over and the Under favorably listed at -110 odds.
Which side of that 23.5 should you be putting your money on this season?
CBS Sports speaks highly of Bellinger's resurgence from last season because of alterations he made to his swing, which writer Dayn Perry described as trading "quality of contact for more frequent contact." While the exit velocity and hard-hit rate were way down, his overall hits were the second-highest of his career (153) and his strikeout percentage was way down to become the second-lowest of his career. (87).
"In the contemporary era, that's not a trade hitters are typically willing to make," Perry writes. "That's in part because the extra-base hit is the best possible outcome for a hitter, so they have an incentive to swing with full force and elevate the ball in the name of racking up those power numbers."
If Bellinger risked those fancy power stats and still hit more HRs last season, that implies that the trade-off is worth it and that he could absolutely hit the Over on homers.
But hold up -- not everyone is buying into the comeback campaign. At least, The Athletic's John Laghezza isn't, especially from a fantasy standpoint.
Laghezza argues that Bellinger's home run burst was also due to an "unsustainable" 100% barrels/HR ratio while the average for the rest of the league is around 54%. This adds to Laghezza's assessment that Bellinger remains consistently inconsistent.
"While Bellinger’s shift toward late-count contact boosted his batting average, I think it may also serve to stunt any incoming power ceiling," he writes.
This argument, paired with concerns over his age and injury history -- staying healthy last season was huge for his campaign -- betting the Under on home runs seems like the better option.
The decision on the over/under comes down to whether you want to place a wager before Bellinger really warms up in spring training.
Bellinger will be playing a shortened camp, but his prep for regular-season play could be a good indicator of whether he is still in Comeback Player shape or if 2023 was a fluke. And while the adjustments he made to his game last season could still be beneficial, there is always a chance that inconsistency will be his downfall.
The Cubs have roughly 20 spring training games left for you to figure that out. Perhaps check out a handful of his plate appearances before placing your futures bet.
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