This award does not have the same history as the others, going back to only 2014. Milwaukee reliever Devin Williams won last year, the second time he has done so in his short career. The Brewers, with Williams and lefty Josh Hader (favored in the American League this season) have had a stranglehold on the award, winning it in five of the last six seasons. The first time Williams won he did not even register a save and Hader won it as well in a set-up role. Saves matter but so do other things.
Here is a look at some players I like for this season.
Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers +300
Williams is at the top of the list and deserves to be with how dominant he has been over his MLB career. However, as you will see below, I think there is some team dependency for an award like this and I worry that Milwaukee is slipping in the NL. Even if Williams sees no drop in his rates it might be tough to really win if you have less than 30 saves. For a price at the top of the table, this is a good bet but no sure thing.
Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves, +900
I believe that the Braves, not the Dodgers, are going to be the best team in the majors this season. Iglesias seems entrenched as the closer in Atlanta and his stuff does not seem to be diminishing at all. A few years back he struck out 100+ batters for the Angels. That is the kind of thing that definitely gets noticed for an award like this. In fact relievers with 100 Ks + have won in six of the past 10 seasons.
Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers, +1000
If the prognosticators are right and the Dodgers win 147 games then Phillips should post some pretty jaw-dropping numbers. Last year he was 8th in the NL in saves with just 24. He is a big of a late bloomer and perhaps not as nasty as some of the others on this list but if you had to make a bet on who leads the league in saves he would be a good one. That gets attention for sure.
Alexis Diaz, Cincinnati Reds +1200
If you have been reading some of the other articles you know I am high on Cincinnati this season. Diaz took over the closer role last season and was an All-Star. His stuff is dominant and if there is team improvement he can move into the 40+ save range, something that no NL pitcher reached last season. He was third in saves last season but seems in a better spot than the two that had a couple of more saves above him (one was Bednar, below).
David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates, +1500
Bednar somehow posted 39 saves for a bad Pittsburgh team last year (tying for the league lead). He has always had dominant stuff and that merits a lot of attention on its own. The Pirates are expected to languish again this season and part of the reason I like him is that I figure he might get dealt. Maybe a team like the Phillies grabs him and he elevates their chances, plus he has good counting stats. The only downside would be a trade to the American League.
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