This NBA Finals SGP is a slam dunk

J.D. Martinez whacked another homer, and Blake Sabol ended up not playing, so let's call that a successful Dinger Tuesday! We head back to the hardwood tonight, as Game 3 of the NBA Finals awaits.

Let's move some numbers around

The NBA Finals heads to Miami tonight with the series knotted at one game apiece, and as it stands, the lines are like so:  

Spread: Denver -2.5
Total: 214.5 points
 
Lucky for us, Same Game Parlays let us shuffle these around to our liking, and that's what feels prudent to pull off tonight.

Let's start with the over. We want that total down at 206.5 points. Arbitrary number? No no no. The Heat tend to play in a bit lower-scoring games than the Nuggets, but this has been the number we can most confidently project. Miami has gone over this total in six of their eight home games this postseason, and four of their last five games against Denver.

The Nuggets, meanwhile, always seem to find themselves in high-scoring games when they hit the road. This postseason the average total points scored in their seven road games have been 231, and they've actually gone over tonight's set over/under in each game away from home.

As for the game's result, our preference is to move the Nuggets to +4.5. We do still believe they are the better team, and after dropping Game 2 we expect a spirited effort. Denver lost Game 2 by just three points, and Miami has dropped two straight home games. Maybe the Heat win or maybe they don't, but either way, we expect another close game.

And thus concludes our play, which comes in at a solid -115 on DraftKings. Enjoy the game!

Betting: Over 206.5 points, Denver +4.5 (-115 DK)

In the news ...

Day after the PGA/LIV merger — Yesterday was a wild one in the sports world and we barely processed the news when we shared it here to start the day. As the dust starts to settle on this announcement between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, one thing is clear: LIV won. In this new entity formed together, LIV Golf and the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia will be the lone, exclusive investor at the table. That's quite a bit of power, and in essence, they bought out the PGA Tour. The deal goes into effect in January, at which point we may start to get some clarity on what the structure will be.

Golf continues on, RBC Canadian Open tees off tomorrow — The media at the RBC Canadian Open is sure to be a circus this weekend, but there's still golf to be played. Lucky for us, Yardbarker's newest sports betting writer Jack Dougherty dove deep into some value plays for three outright winners. Sam Burns at +1600 tops the list thanks to his birdie-making and recent strong finishes. Speaking of birdies, keep an eye on Sahith Theegala at +2900, who ranks 10th on the Tour in birdie or better percentage, which bodes well for a weekend that figures to have some very low scores.

Jacob deGrom to undergo Tommy John surgery — Poor Jacob deGrom, dealt another tough injury blow. deGrom will be forced to undergo Tommy John surgery, his second since 2010, and will miss the rest of the year. This was deGrom's first year with the Texas Rangers, who have gotten out to a strong 40-20 start, leading the AL West. The Rangers will have to continue on without their big-money ace and are +130 to win the division.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll