Tigers right-hander Casey Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and was already set to miss at least part of the upcoming season. However, there’s an extra layer of complication to his recovery, as the team informed reporters today that he also underwent back surgery around the same time, listing his two issues as a right elbow sprain and a lumbar strain.
“I’ve been dealing with the issue for a long time,” Mize told reporters, including Jason Beck of MLB.com. “I would say years. It’s just something that’s gradually gotten worse over time.” He then goes on to detail that, since he was going to be out for an extended stretch with the Tommy John anyway, the idea was to get both issues dealt with at the same time. It seems the back issue delayed his rehab process slightly, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that the rehab is now primarily focused on his arm. He’ll start playing catch this week.
It’s unclear exactly how this will impact his 2023 season, but he was going to be challenged to return in any case. The recovery process from Tommy John generally takes 14 months or longer. Since Mize first went under the knife in June of last year, he was likely looking at a brief late-season return even in a best-case scenario. It’s possible that the back issue will push his return even farther down the road, though it seems that’s all still up in the air.
“It’s tough to make decisions on February 15 about what July 1 is going to look like, about what October 1 is going to look like, about the following spring training,” Mize said, per Petzold. “We have a set schedule and program that we’d like to follow, but this thing is fluid. There are going to be changes throughout it.”
The first overall pick of the 2018 draft, Mize has shown some promise in his big league career so far but also some struggles. He debuted in 2020 with seven starts and a 6.99 ERA. He seemed to take a step forward in 2021 by posting a 3.71 ERA over 30 starts, his first full season in the bigs. His 6.7% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate were both strong, but his 19.3% strikeout rate was a few ticks below league average. It’s possible that a .254 batting average on balls in play and 79.5% strand rate were helping his ERA down a bit, as he had a 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA on the year. In 2022, he was only able to make a pair of starts before landing on the shelf.
Ideally, taking care of both ailments and getting Mize to 100% health will allow him to provide better results once he’s back on the mound, be that later this year or in 2024. For the Tigers, they were surely aware of this situation, though it wasn’t publicly known until today. With both Mize and Tarik Skubal both having unclear timelines this year, the club signed Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen to join Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Manning and Spencer Turnbull in the rotation. Mize will spend most or all of this season on the injured list, accruing service time in the process. He’ll cross the three-year mark this year and qualify for arbitration in the upcoming offseason, slated to become a free agent after 2026.
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