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Today's value wager is MLB strikeout props

With plenty of MLB on the docket today, we're turning our attention to the strikeout prop betting market. For Thursday in baseball, there are three pitchers in particular we see some value in.

Martin Perez over 4.5 Ks (-116) — Perez has had a strong season with the Rangers, going over 4.5 strikeouts in 10 of his past 12 starts. Seattle is a solid team to target for strikeout props, fanning at a 23.6% rate against LHP in the past 30 days, the 12th-highest mark in the league. Given Perez had 7 Ks in his last start against Seattle, we like the 4.5 line here at reasonable odds.

Framber Valdez over 6.5 Ks (+109) — We load up a plus-money play with the backing of Framber Valdez. Valdez has only crossed this threshold at a 50% rate in his past 10 games, but it's his success against Los Angeles that catches our eye. Valdez struck out 13 Angels on July 3, and L.A. has seriously struggled against LHP of late, striking out second-most frequently in the past 30 days. With the Angels' struggles and Valdez capitalizing last time, we're going to him to do it again.

Corbin Burnes over 7.5 Ks (-139) — Burnes of Milwaukee often piles up big strikeout totals, thus why we have a 7.5 line on our hands. We like backing Burnes quite a bit tonight; he's gone over this 7.5 total in five of his past six games and fanned 11 Giants when he started against them in April. San Francisco's strikeout rate is rising against RHP in the past 30 games, up to the fifth highest in the league. Given his past history against San Fran and the recent outings he's put on the table, give us Burnes for another big game.


In other news ...

Johnny Gaudreau signs with the Columbus Blue Jackets — The big news out of NHL free agency yesterday was star LW Johnny Gaudreau joining Columbus on a monster seven-year deal. Gaudreau was the gem of this class, a six-time All-Star who has been with Calgary since 2013. He elevated the play of his linemates this past season and posted a career high in points (115) last year. It hasn't done much for the Blue Jackets' Stanley Cup odds, currently the eighth-longest odds at +7500. Gaudreau is +3000 to win the Hart Trophy next season, odds that could shrink should he significantly lift Columbus into a contender in the East.

Toronto Blue Jays fire manager Charlie Montoyo — The third manager to be fired this year in baseball is Montoyo, let go by Toronto on Wednesday in the midst of a 2-8 skid. The Blue Jays are currently fourth in the AL East but right at the top of the wild card race. We've seen teams respond well to firings before, but this one feels different: Montoyo was well-regarded by the Blue Jays clubhouse the last we checked. This news makes us feel better about Tampa Bay and Boston futures. The Rays are currently -225 to make the playoffs while the Red Sox are -150. Both surrounding Toronto in the standings, and with multiple wild cards up for grabs, we prefer looking here for your futures.

Significant handle on Tiger Woods to win The Open — The betting market news prior to The Open teeing off was the popularity behind Tiger to win the fourth major of the year. More money had been put on Woods than any other golfer to win The Open, and given his +6000 odds, this is conceivably something sportsbooks might be sweating. At time of writing, Woods is off to a rough start, +3 through three holes. It's early, and by the time you're reading this, perhaps Tiger has steadied the ship. Enjoy The Open all weekend!


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll


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