Two can't-miss parlays for the Home Run Derby

The Home Run Derby is finally here! Best of all, sportsbooks are offering lots of betting options for Monday's Derby. Now some books aren't offering all that many parlay options for the Derby, but FanDuel is. 

Even better news! FanDuel has really good odds on a couple of them too. Two in particular are pretty low-risk, high-reward. 

Want some more good news? Both bets revolve around the beginning of the Derby. Now you don't have to watch the whole Derby anxiously waiting to see if your parlays hit. 

Betting against Pete Alonso is risky because he's won back-to-back titles but betting on him to win for a third consecutive time is just as risky because no one has ever won the Derby three straight times. Heck, Ken Griffey Jr. is the only player to ever win three Home Run Derbys, let alone three consecutive. 

So, do you bet on Alonso, or do you bet on the field? That bet is being offered by just about every sportsbook, but don't touch it. It's too risky. 

Instead, focus on the first round of the Derby. Particularly, top seeded Kyle Schwarber. You know why? His first-round opponent is 42-year-old Albert Pujols. 

No doubt, Pujols is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he shouldn't be taken seriously to do well in the Derby. Pujols has a minuscule six home runs this season, by far and away the fewest among the contestants, and is properly positioned as the eighth and lowest seed in the Derby. Shoot, this is probably it for him. It's a good PR story and all, but don't even think about jumping on the Pujols bandwagon. I know Pujols was the runner-up in 2003 and that he's been in the Derby more than once — 2022 will be his fifth — but he just doesn't have the bat speed or stamina to be taken seriously. 

That's why you need to go all-in on Schwarber to beat Pujols.

There's no such thing as guarantee in anything, especially the Home Run Derby, but this is as close as it gets. Schwarber currently leads the National League with 29 home runs and has had past success in the Derby. He was the runner-up to Bryce Harper back in 2018, when he was with the Cubs, and hit a whooping 55 home runs. Schwarber's having a career-year so far, and with Pujols showing his age so far this season, take Schwarber over Pujols.

Schwarber over Pujols in round one is part of both of parlays, but the final leg for my first parlay is Alonso over Ronald Acuna Jr. in the first round. 

Alonso has never lost in the Derby, yet he's not the top seed. Instead, he's positioned as the No. 2 seed in the Derby. Doesn't matter. Betting against Alonso, whether he's the top seed or lowest seed, is not a good idea. Last year Alonso bashed 35 home runs in the first round against Salvador Perez, and then took down Acuna in the next round en route to his second straight title. Even if Alonso had zero home runs up to this point — he currently has 24 — betting against someone with Alonso's track record is not a good play. 

No doubt Acuna is one of baseball's budding superstars, but asking him to knock off the reigning champ, maybe even the best participant ever in the history of the Derby, in Alonso is a big reach. There's a reason Acuna is the No. 7 seed — he has just eight home runs and has played in only 59 games — after missing over a month with a left foot injury. Acuna can hit some bombs — just look at his statcast profile — but asking him to beat Alonso is just too tall of a task. 

The final leg for my last other parlay is No. 4 seeded Juan Soto to defeat No. 5 seeded Jose Ramirez in the first round. 

Soto may only have 19 home runs so far this season, but with no legit threats to protect him on the league's worst team in Washington, that's not all that bad. Besides, Soto had just 11 home runs before the break last year, and still did well as the No. 8 seed. He obviously didn't win it, but he did upset last year's No. 1 seed and reigning AL MVP in Shohei Ohtani. Back for a second straight year, don't sleep on Soto as the No. 4 seed. He's one of the game's best players, and always seems to perform his best on the biggest stage. 

First year participants and switch hitters always make me nervous in the Derby. Ramirez checks both of those boxes. No switch-hitter has ever won the Derby, and Ramirez is unlikely to be the first. Ramirez leads the American League in RBI, and has a respectable 17 home runs on the season, but he's not a home run hitter. Will a switch-hitter eventually win the Derby? Yeah, probably. It's just probably not going to be Ramirez. With Soto as a first-round matchup, do yourself a favor and don't put any money on Ramirez to do well. 

The Plays: Kyle Schwarber over Albert Pujols AND Pete Alonso over Ronald Acuna Jr. (+100 odds)

Kyle Schwarber over Albert Pujols AND Juan Soto over Jose Ramirez (+103 Odds)