The Cincinnati Reds enter the 2024 season with higher expectations than the team has seen in recent memory.
Their catchers have plenty of talent, but there are also questions about both guys.
Tyler Stephenson took a big step back last year. Entering 2023, Stephenson appeared to be a quality clean-up hitter that would drive the Reds run production. He didn't live up to the billing. Stephenson had a roundball rate of 49% and hit the lowest percentage of line drives in his career at 22%. His OPS+, which is a stat that attempts to be an all-encompassing about hitting where 100 is league-average, went from 133 in 2022 to 87 in 2023.
The bat was a struggle, but the glove might have been worse. Reds fans have been spoiled with good defensive catchers over the years, so seeing Stephenson’s performance in 2023 was a bit of a shock. All of the numbers surrounding his value as a catcher were negative last year. His worst quality was his ability to create strikes through framing.
Baseball Savant has a number they use called catcher framing runs. The leader last year was Patrick Bailey for the Giants with 16 catcher framing runs. Stephenson checked in at -9. Baseball Savant also tracks the percentage of pitches a catcher caught that were called strikes. Bailey also led that stat at 52.9%, while Stephenson was fifth-worst at 42%.
Unfortunately for the Reds, Luke Maile wasn't much better. In fact, his catcher framing runs was at -2 and his strike percentage was 42.3%. Reds pitchers are not benefiting greatly from either catcher’s ability to create strikes. In fact, you could argue they’re being hurt by it.
So who's next? If Stephenson doesn’t bounce back in 2024, is there someone in the Reds farm system ready to take the reins? In short, no.
The Reds have cycled through catching prospects in the past few years. At one point Mat Nelson was rated as the top guy behind the plate, but he has a greater strikeout rate than just about anyone.
Daniel Vellojin doesn’t have a ton of power and there are questions about his defensive ability. The best catching prospect in the organization may be Alfredo Duno, but he is still a teenager and has only played in the Dominican Summer League and still has a long way to go before we know what he'll become.
Stephenson is locked in as the Reds starting catcher. They are hoping he can bounce back and he needs to prove he can be here for the long haul.
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