It's time to hit the panic button on Chase Elliott
When Chase Elliott returned from a six-week leg injury earlier this year, his path towards still making the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs was simple: just win a race.
It didn't seem too arduous for someone who did so five times last season, even after Elliott missed an additional race due to a suspension. Even if he couldn't find victory lane, it seemed plausible for Elliott to climb back into the picture on points. But now, his chances seem to be slipping away.
With six races to go before NASCAR's 10-week postseason begins, Elliott is 60 points behind the playoff cut line, and yet to win. His last two finishes have been outside the top ten, and he's lost ground to the drivers he's chasing.
The most concerning thing, though, is that Elliott is very lucky to even be in the position he's in. Somehow, he leads the Cup Series in average finish this season among full-time drivers, at 11.85 -- but this is very deceiving, as it's more than three spots higher than his average running position of 15.29.
Elliott has only led 38 laps in his combined 13 starts, and has simply lacked contending speed on most weeks. Several of his best results, such as a pair of thirds at Darlington and Chicago, were aided by pit strategy or attrition.
It's a credit to Elliott that he has been grinding out solid finishes, but it's not usually a sustainable method for success. The law of averages will likely catch up to him at some point -- if Elliott can't start running the way he's been finishing, then he'll start finishing the way he's been running.
Right now, it seems like the former of those two options is unlikely. The No. 9 team simply does not look playoff-caliber, bringing middle-of-the-pack cars to the racetrack that have the driver fighting an uphill battle all day long. Elliott is doing the best he can, but it might not be enough.
Should Elliott end up missing the playoffs, one has to wonder what the future holds for his race team, namely crew chief Alan Gustafson. Gustafson has been with Hendrick Motorsports since 2005, and has guided his drivers to 38 Cup Series wins in 19 years, but given the names he's worked with, it's fair to question how much of their success has been in spite of him. It may be time for a change.
At the very least, Elliott's missed races can't be used as an excuse for the season he is having. He and his team have had plenty of opportunities to fight their way back into contention, and have not capitalized.
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