2025 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

While last year’s draft class had no clear-cut frontrunner to be the first player off the board heading into lottery night, there’s a consensus No. 1 pick in this year’s class: Duke forward Cooper Flagg. As Chris Mannix of SI.com tweets, it’s safe to assume whichever team lands the first overall pick in Monday’s lottery will be keeping it and drafting Flagg rather than entertaining trade proposals.

“If we don’t get him, I just hope he winds up in the (other) conference,” one lottery team executive told Mannix.

While Dylan Harper of Rutgers is considered a strong consolation prize at No. 2, the presence of a surefire No. 1 choice at the top of the draft will make the results of the 2025 lottery especially meaningful, with teams holding out hope that their logo will be on the final card revealed by the NBA on Monday evening.

Here’s what you need to know heading into Monday’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2025 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

1. Utah Jazz
2. Washington Wizards
3. Charlotte Hornets
4. New Orleans Pelicans
5. Philadelphia 76ers
   • Note: The Thunder will receive this pick if it falls out of the top six (36.0%).
6. Brooklyn Nets
7. Toronto Raptors
8. San Antonio Spurs
9. Houston Rockets (from Suns)
10. Portland Trail Blazers
11. Dallas Mavericks
12. Chicago Bulls
13. Atlanta Hawks (from Kings)
    • Note: The Kings will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (3.8%).
14. San Antonio Spurs (from Hawks)

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

From there, the Pelicans (12.5%), Sixers (10.5%), Nets (9.0%), Raptors (7.5%), and Spurs (6.7% across two picks) have the next-best odds to receive the first overall selection.

When the NBA introduced its new lottery format in 2019, the selling point was that the new system flattened the odds, making it less likely that the league’s very worst teams would claim a top pick.

Before the NBA tweaked the lottery rules, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

Despite the flattened odds, there were few major lottery-night surprises in the years leading up to 2024. The Pelicans moved up from No. 7 in the lottery standings in 2019 to claim the first overall pick, which they used on Zion Williamson, but in each of the next four years, a team in the top three of the lottery standings won the No. 1 pick.

That streak ended a year ago, however, when the Hawks moved up from the No. 10 spot in the lottery standings to claim the No. 1 overall pick, which eventually became Zaccharie Risacher. Perhaps we’ll get another major surprise in this year’s event.

For this year’s full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

For full details on the current lottery format, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

The Sixers traded their 2025 first-round pick to the Thunder, but will keep that selection if it lands within the top six. There’s a 63.9% chance that will happen and a 36.1% chance it will slip to No. 7 or below and be sent to Oklahoma City. If Philadelphia retains its first-rounder this year, the club would instead owe its 2026 first-round pick (top-four protected) to the Thunder.

The Rockets have acquired the Suns‘ unprotected first-round pick, which will likely land at either No. 9 (50.7%) or No. 10 (28.3%), but has a 17.3% chance to move into the top four.

The Kings will owe the Hawks their first-round pick if it lands outside of the top 12, which is highly likely. There’s a 92.9% chance that pick will be at No. 13 and a 3.3% chance of it moving down to No. 14. By comparison, there’s only a 3.8% chance that it will move into the top four, allowing Sacramento to keep it.

Finally, the Hawks‘ first-round pick, which projects to be No. 14, will be sent to the Spurs. There’s a 96.6% chance it will be the 14th overall pick, but with a 3.4% chance it will turn into a top-four pick, San Antonio has a shot at moving up in the lottery with two separate first-rounders.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

1. Utah Jazz
   • On stage: Ashley Smith (team co-owner)
     
   • Drawing room: Justin Zanik (general manager)
2. Washington Wizards
   
   • On stage: Bub Carrington
   • Drawing room: Will Dawkins (general manager)
3. Charlotte Hornets
   
   • On stage: Charles Lee (head coach)
   • Drawing room: Rick Schnall (co-chairman and governor)
     

• On stage: Zion Williamson
• Drawing room: Joe Dumars (executive VP of basketball operations)

Although they’ll receive the Kings’ first-round pick if it lands outside the top 12, the Hawks won’t have any representatives on hand because they don’t have a path to a top-four pick.

The Thunder, who will receive the Sixers’ pick if it’s outside of the top six, won’t have an on-stage representative for the same reason. However, executive VP and GM Sam Presti will be in the drawing room.