Best bets for the NBA 3-Point Contest
The NBA All-Star weekend is almost here, and Saturday's events have always been the headlining grab for me. One event in particular has been a personal favorite: I would argue that the 3-Point Contest is one of the most electric betting events you can possibly have a stake in.
Eight players compete to shoot five balls per rack (five total racks), including the new addition of two "Mountain Dew balls" worth three points. Before we get any further you need to know two things: this is a fun event with no true edge and one you should not bet heavy in. The second thing is this: I love betting this event and have bet on the winner in two of the past three seasons, including Karl-Anthony Towns at +1300 last season.
My credentials are clear as day, and now let's have some fun. Do not take this article too seriously, but at the same time, take it completely seriously. Make sense?
The participants (& best odds)
- Buddy Hield (+425 DK)
- Damian Lillard (+470 FD)
- Jayson Tatum (+550 FD)
- Kevin Huerter (+550 DK)
- Tyrese Haliburton (+650 FD)
- Lauri Markkanen (+650 DK)
- Tyler Herro (+800 FD)
- Julius Randle (+950 FD)
Anfernee Simons had to drop out of the event, opening up a spot taken by Julius Randle. Buddy Hield is the slight favorite, and as we're about to get to, he's here for good reason.
Shooting splits
I am going to continue flip-flopping with my disclaimers. There is no scientific approach to an event like this. At the same time, I believe there is, and the science I prefer to put weight into is how a player has shot in the arena the event takes place, that being the home of the Utah Jazz this year.
I know what you're thinking — that is a really stupid thing to look at when they're shooting from stationary racks, and to that I say — you're right. But you're also wrong. Last season we identified that Karl-Anthony Towns was shooting an absurd 62% from deep in Cleveland, and we used that and nothing else to base our bet on. It paid off, so who is to say if this matters or not?
For the sake of a more complete study, below are each of the three-point contest participants and their three-point shooting splits for their season, the last 10 games and their percentage in Utah.
Buddy Hield L10 games: 43.3% Season: 42.6% In Utah: 42.6%
Damian Lillard L10 games: 36.8% Season: 37.2% In Utah: 36.7%
Jayson Tatum L10 games: 38.4% Season: 35.7% In Utah: 37%
Kevin Huerter L10 games: 26.2% Season: 39.2% In Utah: 46.2%
Tyrese Haliburton L10 games: 37.7% Season: 39.9% In Utah: 37.5%
Lauri Markkanen L10 games: 35.4% Season: 41.2% In Utah*: 44.9%
*Used Markkanen's home shooting numbers this year since he is a member of the Jazz
Tyler Herro L10 games: 35.5% Season: 36.9% In Utah: 23.1%
Julius Randle L10 games: 29.8% Season: 33.8% In Utah: 38.9%
Initial favorites
To me, I am putting about 150% weight into shooting percentage in Utah, which would give Kevin Huerter, Lauri Markkanen and Buddy Hield the early edge as I look to find a favorite shooter.
Huerter's last-10 numbers are a bit concerning, but who's to say Kevin hasn't just been locked into this tournament and it led his mind adrift during the game? He could easily be the most dedicated participant in this event, and I'd hate to overlook him because of a brief cold spell.
Buddy Hield is the only player here to have a clean sweep of 40% or higher across his splits, and he's eighth in the NBA this season in 3P% - a worthy betting favorite. Hield won this event back in 2020, and I looked back on the tape and it was absolutely electric. Hield's money rack was the final corner, and he nailed all five in the first round and four in the final round, including a walk off with his last ball.
That shows me the moxie we could back, though I do wish he made one of his four Dew balls.
Lastly there's Markkanen, the home town favorite who comes in at a tantalizing +650. His home shooting percentage has been superb this season, but I'll note that in four games as the visitor in Utah, he shot only 29% from beyond the arc. I don't know how to factor that in here - I need to tinker with my model next season.
Markkanen is 20th in the NBA in 3P% and consistently chucks up seven or more threes. There may be a bit of KAT bias at play here, seeing as we backed a big man last season to win, but the numbers don't lie - Lauri loves making threes in Utah. There's also something to be said for him being so comfortable on this court.
The kicker here may be the Mountain Dew connection, because if I've said it once I've said it a million times — Dew Balls crown champions. Markkanen overlapped with Zach LaVine in Chicago back in 2021 when LaVine signed on to be the official Mountain Dew athlete. One has to consider that an important factor at play here. Did Markkanen get free Mountain Dew? Will that help him shoot a long range Dew ball? Probably.
The picks
I love Buddy Hield's experience, but I think he's almost too good right now. You need a chip on your shoulder, and I'm just not sure I see the fire burning under Buddy for this event.
As such I'm trusting in the most important numbers you could possibly collect: shooting percentage in Utah. Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Huerter are the two gentlemen that lead the way there, and it's there we place our bets.
Enjoy the event, and cheers to some Dew Balls from our two potential new best friends.
Betting: Kevin Huerter (+550) and Lauri Markkanen (+650 DK)
More must-reads: