Mavericks vs. Suns Game 1 odds & best bet

Both of these teams won a six-game series in the first round to advance, but did so in different ways. 

For Dallas, they started the playoffs not knowing exactly when they would get the services of top player Luka Doncic. He wound up missing the first few games, but the Mavericks won two of those games and were in a great position to take the series against Utah. Luka has looked great since returning, making Dallas a factor in these playoffs. 

Meanwhile, Phoenix finished the season with the best record in the league and was expected to breeze through its opening series against New Orleans. That was not the case, as top scorer Devin Booker missed time and the Suns dropped a couple of games along the way. Booker is back now, so Phoenix is looking to get back on track to the NBA Finals against a Mavericks team they should have lots of confidence playing against.

Phoenix has owned Dallas of late. During the regular season, the Suns were 3-0 SU against the Mavs (2-1 ATS). The last time Dallas beat Phoenix was before the pandemic. That is 9 straight losses (Phoenix is 7-2 ATS) 

Game Info

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, May 2, 2022
10:00 PM ET
Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona
TNT

Betting Odds

Spread: Mavericks +5.5 (-110), Suns -5.5 (-110)
Total: 215
Moneyline: Mavericks +185, Suns -225

Best Bet

Phoenix -5.5

I am not putting too much stock in the long losing streak the Mavs have against the Suns. 2019 was a long time ago. So long that the Mavericks have a different coach now and Chris Paul was not even with the Suns.

Nevertheless, I like the Suns to strike first in the series. Dallas might be a better matchup for them than New Orleans was, even though the Mavs are the much better team. 

The key to the series for Phoenix is probably not Paul or Booker but wing Mikal Bridges. He is averaging 17ppg in the series while making more than 50% of his shots, including more than 50% from behind the arc. In this series they are going to need less of his offense and more of his stellar defense. There is a case for him being the best wing defender in the league and he will spend a lot of time on Doncic. Beating Dallas with regularity requires that you make Doncic work extra hard and reduce his efficiency. 

I also like the matchup of Phoenix center DeAndre Ayton inside against the Dallas big men. Ayton has been averaging over 20ppg in the playoffs and was an underrated part of their success a year ago. He is never going to be the most versatile center but his game continues to grow. He can easily outproduce the Dallas bigs. 

Dallas is one of the better defensive teams in the league and is going to have to suppress the Phoenix offense to stay in the series. Beyond Doncic, it is hard to see where the Mavericks are going to have any consistent advantages and that is not going to be enough against a focused Suns team. 

The game plan is going to be to grit it out and hope that Luka can win games late. He will might get them a couple, but we don't expect Game 1 to be one of them.

Keep a sharp eye on the number. It opened at -6 in a lot of places and has come down from there. I would not expect a ton of movement from -5.5 but we might get a -5.