Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game 6 odds and best bet

Miami is facing their first elimination game of these playoffs, and in looking at those odds, it does not look like they are going to extend the series.

Once teams start facing elimination, the odds and pre-series analysis become interesting. If you thought Miami was going to win and advance to the NBA Finals, right now you get them at +300 (just to win Friday night) and what would be a smaller number but perhaps also + value hosting a Game 7. 

Have things really changed in your assessment or are we just seeing variance due to sample size? How you answer that question could inform your bet as much as anything else you see here or anywhere else leading up to the game. 

Getting back to where we are on the court, Boston looked strong on the hardwood in Game 5, once again holding Miami in the 80s. The outcome was especially impressive given that Boston was the road team and they were down at halftime. 

Boston being at home is a factor in this one, but so is the fact that Boston seems to have doubled-down on its defense over the last couple of games (with success). When they do that, with the offensive players they have, they are proving very tough to beat. 

Game Info

Miami Heat (2-3) vs. Boston Celtics (3-2)
Friday, May 27, 2022
8:30 p.m.
TD Garden, Boston, Mass.
ESPN

Betting Odds

Spread: Heat +8.5 (-110), Celtics -8.5 (-110)
Total: 201
Moneyline: Heat +300, Celtics -370

Best Bet

Over 201

In the first three games of the series, the over cashed pretty easily, but scoring has taken a downturn over the last two games, both unders. 

In the last game, neither team scored even 95 points, which is why we are getting the lowest total of the series in Game 6.

It is a little too much of a correction for me; granted, things can get wild in an elimination game if the outcome is decided early on. 

Miami is banged up with all of their backcourt players listed as questionable, except for Victor Oladipo.

In taking the over, I am relying on Miami coach Erik Spoelstra to come up with a new wrinkle to help the Heat find some offense. 

My instinct is that they might play big, perhaps using Bam Adebayo on the wing and seeing if a guy like Omer Yurseven can have success scoring inside. Attacking the paint is difficult with Robert Williams and Al Horford in there, but there could be an opportunity to play some old-school back-to-the-basket offense down low.

Defensively, Miami will have to try and wall up with that group, which creates more opportunities for three-pointers for Boston. That can definitely increase the pace and scoring. They have lots of shooters.  

This is probably the end for Miami but I don't expect they will go out with a whimper. Look for both teams to top 100. 

Score Prediction - Boston 108 - Miami 102