NBA Futures betting: Who will emerge as this season's MVP?
Last year Philadelphia 76er center Joel Embiid won the MVP. He had a great season of course, but there was a lot of narrative about how they could not give it to Nikola Jokic for a third season in a row. Nevertheless, Jokic showed his true value by leading Denver to an NBA title and he is at the top of the MVP odds entering the 2023-24 season. He is not just elite but one of the most consistent players in the game, in terms of performance and availability. However, last season's results demonstrate yet again it is not always as simple as that.
Let's take a look at the odds and see where we can find some values a few weeks before the season starts.
NBA MVP Odds
Tier 1
Nikola Jokic +450
Luka Doncic +500
Giannis Antetokoumpo +550
Joel Embiid +650
Jayson Tatum +800
Obviously, this is an elite group. However, with the exception of Jokic and Doncic, I feel the opportunity for the others have been diminished this offseason. Milwaukee just brought in Damian Lillard to "support" Giannis, which could mean a little more time off, and what if he doesn't lead his team in scoring? Tatum has a couple of new players to work with in big man Kristaps Porzingis and point guard Jrue Holiday. Both might eat away at his counting stats a little, and Philly is just a mess right now, hampering Embiid bid at a repeat.
Denver should have another strong season so unless the narrative of 3 wins in 4 years persists, Jokic is still a great bet and a nice value.
My best bet ... Jokic
Tier 2
Kevin Durant +1400
Steph Curry +1500
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander +1600
Trae Young +1800
Devin Booker +1800
This is an interesting group. I have real concerns about how it is all going to work in Phoenix and thus am not a big fan of Durant or Booker — who could easily cancel each other out as candidates. Although given the injury history of Durant, perhaps Booker is a nice value. The guys I like the best in this tier are SGA and Young. Both have proven they can be superlative players, but they are going to need to have their teams finish in the top half of their conferences to really get on the radar. Steph is always in the conversation.
My best bet ... SGA (ignore if you don't think they can make the playoffs)
Tier 3
LeBron James +1900
Damian Lillard +2200
Donovan Mitchell +2500
Anthony Edwards +3000
Anthony Davis +3500
I know this is Tier 3 but there is a lot to like within this group. I think there is a chance that LeBron might have realized the dream to play with his son is not realistic and just burns all of the fuel to win another MVP while Mitchell and Edwards could be the best player on surprise teams. Unless Giannis misses a chunk of time and Lillard sustains them I do not see how he has a realistic shot. Davis is a long shot too, unless LeBron misses a lot of time also.
My best bet ... Edwards (a scoring title might turn some heads)
Best of the Rest (Some guys I like)
Zion Williamson +3500
This is a massive health bet but the Pelicans are poised to rise if they could get a full season out of him and he has always been a lightning rod. He can put up some serious numbers even if New Orleans is managing him.
Jalen Brunson +8000
The Knicks have to overperform for him to be considered but I think there is room for them to be a top 4 team in the East. Brunson is the heart of that team and maybe there is enough sentiment to get him close. Plus maybe some injuries knock down a contender or two. The payoff is what drives some interest for sure.
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