2018 NFL division preview: NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

2017 record: 10-6 (third in NFC South)

Key additions: CB Justin Bethel, FB Jalston Fowler, G Brandon Fusco, S Ron Parker, TE Logan Paulsen, DT Garrison Smith

Notable losses: DE Adrian Clayborn, WR Taylor Gabriel, DT Dontari Poe, WR Andre Roberts, DT Ahtyba Rubin, TE Levine Toilolo, DL Courtney Upshaw, RB Terron Ward

Top draft picks: WR Calvin Ridley, CB Isaiah Oliver, DT Deadrin Senat

2018 outlook: Kyle Shanahan’s departure ravaged the Falcons, and successor Steve Sarkisian enters the season under as much pressure as any NFL coordinator. Atlanta plummeted from a top-10, all-time scoring offense in 2016 to one that ranked 15th among 2017 attacks. The longtime college coach has the same core crew Shanahan enjoyed during Atlanta’s Super Bowl run two years ago — Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman — with Ridley replacing Gabriel. The Falcons added Fusco to plug a hole at guard, and Austin Hooper’s a bigger factor now than he was as a rookie with Shanahan. If the Falcons don’t make a noticeable leap on offense, look for general manager Thomas Dimitroff to find a new play-caller to salvage the rest of the Ryan/Jones/Freeman era.

After ranking 27th in scoring defense during the Super Bowl season and bottoming out with arguably the biggest single-game collapse in modern sports history, Atlanta improved on defense. The Falcons ranked eighth in points allowed last year, although they were 22nd in DVOA, under new defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel. The Falcons need more from Vic Beasley and Takkarist McKinley (11 combined sacks last season), but they boast a fast-emerging middle linebacker in Deion Jones — Pro Football Focus' top 2017 coverage linebacker — and now have four secondary cogs (Desmond Trufant, Robert Alford and Ricardo Allen) under team control through at least 2020. 

Are they better than last season? The Falcons didn’t make major free agency additions, but Ridley and Fusco give the starting lineup a slight edge over 2017’s. Enough talent resides in Atlanta to rival just about any NFL roster.

Best-case scenario: Dan Quinn’s group atones for its catastrophe and becomes the first team to win a Super Bowl at home. The dome with the new-age lighting hosts Super Bowl LIII, but the Falcons aren't getting sufficient buzz to be the NFC’s representative.

Worst-case scenario: The Sarkisian hire burns the Falcons, who see Ryan fail to recapture his MVP form. It will take at least 10 wins to secure an NFC playoff berth, and with Aaron Rodgers back, other teams' error margin shrinks. A repeat of 2017’s offensive showing may mean the Falcons are left out.

Record prediction: 11-5

Carolina Panthers

2017 record: 11-5 (second in NFC South)

Key additions: RB C.J. Anderson, RB Kenjon Barner, CB Ross Cockrell, CB Lorenzo Doss, DT Dontari Poe, S Da’Norris Searcy, OL Jeremiah Sirles, WR Torrey Smith, WR Jarius Wright

Notable losses: QB Derek Anderson, WR Kaelin Clay, S Kurt Coleman, TE Ed Dickson, LB Andrew Gachkar, DE Charles Johnson, WR Charles Johnson, DT Star Lotulelei, G Andrew Norwell, RB Jonathan Stewart, CB Teddy Williams, CB Daryl Worley

Top draft picks: WR D.J. Moore, CB Donte Jackson, CB Rashaan Gaulden

2018 outlook: Already a Panthers trouble spot, the offensive line became a serious concern after right tackle starter Daryl Williams tore an MCL recently. Carolina prioritized an extension for three-time Pro Bowler Trai Turner, allowing 2017 All-Pro Norwell to defect to Jacksonville. The Panthers rated as a below-average pass-blocking line with Norwell and Williams last season. The aftermath could be trouble. Cam Newton has a new OC in Norv Turner (the 66-year-old’s seventh NFL OC gig), whose vertical passing game should fit the quarterback well. However, the Panthers saw neither of its running backs eclipse 3.7 yards per carry last season. A wounded O-line will make locating rushing lanes tough for Anderson and Christian McCaffrey, placing more pressure on Newton.

The Panthers still feature of the NFL’s premier front sevens. Likely Hall of Famer Luke Kuechly remains arguably the best at his job, and Shaq Thompson is in line to take over as the middle linebacker’s running mate after 35-year-old Thomas Davis calls it quits. General manager Marty Hurney signing Poe to play alongside Kawann Short sounds uncomfortable for opposing centers and guards, and it will free up space for the Panthers' edge rushers and linebackers. Carolina's secondary isn’t particularly impressive. Jackson becoming a quick study would help a team that’s dependent on James Bradberry (PFF’s No. 98 cornerback last year) and a safety tandem comprised of a street free agent (Searcy) and one of the NFL’s oldest non-QBs (37-year-old Mike Adams).

Are they better or worse than last season? Worse. Norwell’s departure and Williams’ injury will make things harder for the Panthers’ offense, and Carolina again might not have enough at wide receiver to help one of the NFL’s least accurate starting quarterbacks.

Best-case scenario: Newton rebounds in Turner’s system and helps the Panthers to a wild card spot. Of all the NFC’s most recent playoff teams, though, this one looks to have the toughest road back.

Worst-case scenario: The offensive deficiencies prove too much for the Panthers to overcome, and Newton enters his 30s on the heels of three sub-par passing seasons.

Record prediction: 6-10

New Orleans Saints

2017 record: 11-5 (NFC South champion)

Key additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, OL Don Barclay, DT Jay Bromley, OL Jermon Bushrod, S Kurt Coleman, LB Demario Davis, WR Michael Floyd, WR Cameron Meredith, CB Patrick Robinson, QB Tom Savage, WR Brandon Tate, RB Shane Vereen, TE Benjamin Watson

Notable losses: CB Delvin Breaux, S Rafael Bush, WR Brandon Coleman, QB Chase Daniel, DE Kasim Edebali, LB Jonathan Freeny, LB Gerald Hodges, DL John Hughes, OL Senio Kelemete, FB John Kuhn, CB Sterling Moore, DT David Parry, WR Willie Snead, S Kenny Vaccaro

Top draft picks: DE Marcus Davenport, WR Tre’Quan Smith

2018 outlook: During the middle portion of this decade, it looked like the Saints were going to end the Drew Brees era uneventfully. They went 7-9 in three straight seasons, mostly thanks to a horrendous defense. But as Brees enters his NFL twilight years, a Saints Super Bowl window has reopened. 

Alvin Kamara outperformed passing-down predecessors Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles, and he and Mark Ingram became the first running back teammates to each surpass 1,500 yards from scrimmage. Michael Thomas profiles as a potential All-Pro, and another part of New Orleans’ stacked 2017 draft class gave Brees a promising right tackle in Ryan Ramczyk. The Saints are essentially running it back on offense in 2018, replacing Snead with Meredith. They did, however, trade a third-round pick for Bridgewater. While he's not a good bet to play key snaps this season, with Brees having missed just one game due to injury in his Saints tenure, the team now has exclusive negotiating rights for six-plus months with a possible long-term successor. New Orleans hasn’t deployed a scoring offense outside the top 12 in any of Brees’ 12 years, and this should be another high-end group.

The Saints’ defense being responsible for one of the most agonizing season endings in NFL history shouldn’t underscore what its 2017 performance meant to the franchise’s future. While Tom Brady’s been given 14 top-10 scoring defenses in his career, Brees has been blessed with only three in his Saints slates. The Saints went from 31st in points allowed in 2016 to 10th last year, affording an all-time great passer a wider safety net. Mickey Loomis bet big on Davenport, likely because of the limited time the Saints have left as a Brees-led contender, and added Davis to supply the linebacking corps with a locked-in starter. New Orleans also brought its 2010 first-round pick, a since-improved Robinson, back to work the slot in a secondary teeming with potential now that Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams are entrenched.

Are they better or worse than last season? Ingram’s suspension hurts, and Vaccaro was a longtime starter, but the Saints should see development from their potent 2017 draft class. This and the additions of Davis and Robinson undoubtedly strengthen the reigning NFC South champs.

Best-case scenario: Armed with one of his best teams, Brees wins his first MVP and pilots the Saints to their second Super Bowl championship. An MVP ascent isn't far-fetched for a 39-year-old passer who last year paced the NFL in yards per attempt and reset the completion percentage record (72.0). 

Worst-case scenario: Not projecting the Saints to the playoffs is next to impossible, but one of the other top-tier NFCers outflanking them in January is obviously in play. The Saints are one of the highest-floor teams, but a few other rivals have comparable ceilings.

Record prediction: 12-4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2017 record: 5-11 (fourth in NFC North)

Key additions: DT Beau Allen, K Chandler Catanzaro, DE Vinny Curry, CB De’Vante Harris, C Ryan Jensen, OLB Cameron Lynch, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DL Mitch Unrein

Notable losses: DE Robert Ayers, DT Chris Baker, C Joe Hawley, RB Doug Martin, CB Robert McClain, DT Clinton McDonald, OL Kevin Pamphile, DE Ryan Russell, DT Sealver Siliga, S T.J. Ward

Top draft picks: DT Vita Vea, RB Ronald Jones, CB M.J. Stewart, CB Carlton Davis, G Alex Cappa

2018 outlook: Jameis Winston’s offseason pushed him firmly into a de facto contract year in Tampa. The Buccaneers picked up the 2015 No. 1 overall pick’s fifth-year option last May but can rescind it as long as Winston stays healthy. Winston’s issues on and off the field have plagued him since entering the NFL, and this three-game suspension overshadowed some Bucs roster augmentations. The free agent market’s top center, Jensen, will now snap to Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the Bucs will try to find their next Doug Martin in Ronald Jones. Most of the additions went to repairing a defense that fared terribly last season, but Tampa Bay’s QBs still have a deep arsenal — one that should include bigger roles for Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard — to target.

In attempting to repair a defense that ranked 32nd against the pass and registered a league-low 22 sacks, the Bucs emulated the Eagles in stockpiling defensive linemen. Despite never matching his historic 2011 season, Pierre-Paul quietly amassed 15.5 sacks the past two years. Philadelphia didn’t have room for Curry’s salary any longer. He, Allen and Vea will provide Gerald McCoy with critical support. Tampa Bay has an underappreciated second-level duo in Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander as well. The Bucs haven’t seen enough yet from 2016 first-rounder Vernon Hargreaves and in April used two second-round selections on corners. This is still a vulnerable secondary.

Are they better or worse than last season? On the field, the Bucs improved. Jensen and the new defensive linemen provide vital reinforcements. But the Winston issue threatens to end this Jason Licht/Dirk Koetter era — perhaps via in-season dismissals — if the struggles persist.

Best-case scenario: The Winston/Koetter/Licht power structure stays in place for another year after the former Heisman Trophy winner bounces back, and the Bucs finish around .500.

Worst-case scenario: Despite a well-constructed pass-catching corps, Winston continues his current course. The Bucs, whose schedule is vicious during the Fitzpatrick games, have to start over at quarterback next year.

Record prediction: 5-11