2025 Washington Commanders projected win total, prediction
Washington beat the odds in 2024, going 12-5 in the regular season and reaching the NFC Championship game. Better days are clearly ahead for the Commanders, but some think they’ll take a step back in 2025.
Regular-season win total: 9.5 (BetMGM)
Outlook: Washington finished last season with five straight wins and could start next season the same way. Of the team’s first five opponents, only the Packers (11-6) and Chargers (11-6) had winning records last year. Both games are on the road but both teams were eliminated in the first round of last year's playoffs. Their sixth game is a home matchup against the 5-12 Chicago Bears.
Head coach Dan Quinn got his new team off to a 4-1 start last year, something that gave the team and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels the confidence they needed to overcome a three-game losing streak in Weeks 10-12. Daniels finished the season as the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year with 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns through the air and 891 yards on the ground.
Those numbers should get even better with first-round pick and new right tackle Josh Conerly Jr. and former 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel on the roster. Washington gave up a fifth-round pick to get Samuel and will look to take advantage of his versatility.
“Kliff [Kingsbury] and Brian [Johnson] and the guys have certainly been up extra late in the offseason of finding unique ways to get the ball into that man's hand," Quinn said during an appearance on the Rich Eisen Show. Samuel has 334 catches for 4,792 yards and 22 touchdowns along with 202 carries for 1,143 yards and 20 scores as a rusher in six seasons.
Opponents could be losing sleep over new defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, who signed a three-year, $5M contract to join the team in the offseason. Kinlaw was a first-round pick of the 49ers in 2020 but had a career-high 40 tackles, two forced fumbles and 4.5 sacks for the Jets last season.
He’ll play in front of soon-to-be 35-year-old linebacker Bobby Wagner who returns for his 14th NFL season after leading the Commanders with 132 tackles in 2024. Mix in former Saints safety Will Harris and second-round cornerback Trey Amos and the league’s 13th-ranked defense has a chance to finish in the top-10 next season.
Our take: As the league’s 16th-leading passer, Daniels merely scratched the surface of what he can do as an NFL quarterback. Another year in Kingsbury’s system certainly won’t hurt him or the team as they look to overtake Philadelphia in the NFC East.
Predicted win total: 11
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