AFC Championship Game early look: Bengals-Chiefs betting odds and angles
We've made it to Conference Championship Weekend, and the first game will be in the AFC between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.
On paper, this should be a high-scoring game, with two explosive offenses and suspect defenses. It's hard to ignore the stability and experience that Kansas City brings to this game, their fourth straight AFC Conference Championship game.
Is it Joe Burrow's time, or will Patrick Mahomes continue his AFC dominance? Let's take a look at the game's betting odds, trends and angles to consider as we prepare for this weekend in the NFL.
Bengals vs Chiefs Odds and Betting Trends
Odds via DraftKings
- Spread: Chiefs -7
- Moneyline: Bengals +260 | Chiefs -335
- Total: 54.5 points
Cincinnati Betting Trends
The Bengals come into this one 12-7, winners of five straight if you exclude the Week 18 game they rested all their starters.
Cincinnati is 12-7 ATS overall, 7-2 ATS on the road and 7-3 ATS as an underdog.
The over is just 8-11 in Bengals games and dips down to 2-7 when they are on the road, the worst mark in the NFL.
Kansas City Betting Trends
The 14-5 Chiefs have won 11 of their last 12 games, with the lone loss to this very Bengals team (in Cincinnati).
Kansas City is 10-9 ATS this season and 6-5 ATS at home. The Chiefs have been favored in every game this season, and as we noted the other day, this marks the 13th straight postseason game Kansas City is favored, an NFL record.
The over is 12-7 in Chiefs games this year, the second-best mark in the league. At home, the total has gone over at 54.6% rate (6-5).
Approaching the Game: Against the Spread and Over/Under
After watching the Bills and Chiefs battle it out in one of the best playoff games of all time, it's hard to see a scenario where Kansas City loses this game at home.
Burrow and these receivers have been awesome to watch play, and the future is bright in Cincinnati. I'm just not so sure they have enough to win this game.
The Chiefs have gone to two straight Super Bowls, and this team is seemingly stronger than their 2020 version, particularly along the offensive line.
To me, success starts in the trenches, and a brief look at Pro Football Focus grades has two offensive lines on completely different levels.
The Chiefs rank sixth as a pass-blocking offensive line, while the Bengals rank 25th.
That feels fair, considering Burrow was sacked nine times last week against Tennessee. Aaron Donald may be the only defensive linemen that is as disruptive as Kansas City's Chris Jones.
Even if Jones isn't the one sacking the quarterback, he disrupts every play in the interior, which could wreak havoc on the Bengals offensive plan all game.
The Bengals defense grades out slightly worse guarding the pass than the run, but stopping either isn't much of a strength.
As such, logic suggests that Mahomes and his pass-catchers should have their opportunities in this one.
Kansas City's defense isn't a world-beater as a whole themselves, graded out below-average at both stopping the run and the pass.
The Bengals won this Week 17 game, 34-31, off the back of Burrow's 446 yards and four touchdowns. I'd expect a similar gameplan here, so it may be best to focus on Joe Mixon in the passing game.
This is going to be a great game for prop bets, which we will feature later in the week. For now, the best betting approach for me is to focus on the Chiefs and points.
-105 SGP (DraftKings): Chiefs moneyline, Over 48.5 points
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