After years of complaining about the organization, the Buffalo Bills finally traded wide receiver Stefon Diggs. From a fantasy football perspective, this move leaves plenty of opportunity for guys like Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir. While Samuel and Shakir should both see their fair share of targets, Kincaid is the one who could truly shine.
Selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, the Bills chose the tight end to make him the next focal point of the passing attack. Reliable tight ends in fantasy football are difficult to find, so could Dalton Kincaid become one of the game’s most coveted assets in 2024?
Fantasy Football: Dalton Kincaid Outlook After Stefon Diggs Trade
Dalton Kincaid the Player
Opportunity means nothing if the talent isn’t there, so let’s see if Dalton Kincaid has the raw ability to be relevant in fantasy football. As mentioned before, Kincaid was the only tight end selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, which means he was a pretty good prospect. Additionally, while Sam LaPorta (deservedly) stole all the attention last year, Kincaid had a solid rookie season in his own right.
Appearing in 16 games, the Utah product finished the season with 73 receptions for 673 yards and three touchdowns on 91 targets, making him the TE11 in PPR formats. These are solid numbers, especially for a tight end. Historically speaking, tight ends have the hardest time adjusting from college to the pros, and the fact that Dalton Kincaid was able to contribute is an encouraging sign for his future.
The advanced numbers tell a similar story. Kincaid’s 17.7% target share ranked 14th in the NFL, while his 11.4% air yard share was 19th. From an efficiency standpoint, Kincaid’s 1.48 yards per route run ranked 16th in the NFL, which is about what you’d expect from someone receiving his workload. This culminated in a 68.8 PFF grade, the 20th-best mark out of 72 tight ends. Once again, these are impressive numbers for a rookie and suggest Dalton Kincaid can become an impactful fantasy football asset in 2024.
The Situation
As of this posting, the only other notable pass-catchers on the roster are Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Dawson Knox. Dalton Kincaid has already usurped Knox on the depth chart, so we don’t need to worry about him for fantasy football. Curtis Samuel is a solid player, but he’s nothing special at this point in his career, while Shakir is best in a depth role. If any team knows that Day 3 receivers with impressive efficiency don’t always thrive in larger roles, it’s the Bills.
The Bills currently have two picks in the first two rounds, and it’s safe to assume that one of them will be used on a wide receiver. However, there is a 95% chance that said receiver will not be as good as Diggs. This means that, in all likelihood, Dalton Kincaid will be the first- or second-option in a Josh Allen offense, which means great things for fantasy football.
From a dynasty standpoint, Dalton Kincaid isn’t in the same elite tier as guys like Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Mark Andrews, although he could get there by this time next year. However, outside of those three, it’s hard to put anyone else above him. After all, he’s younger than guys like T.J. Hockenson, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle and has a better quarterback than Kyle Pitts. Brock Bowers could usurp him with the right landing spot, but that’s still weeks away. Redraft rankings won’t be too different, although Kelce would probably be in the top tier in that format.
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