Explaining why Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will likely play on franchise tag

NFL insider Mike Sando of The Athletic has explained why he believes Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson ultimately will play on the franchise tag later this year, if necessary. 

Sando noted that the $32.416M franchise tender for 2023 is paid out at roughly $1.9M per regular-season contest and that "players must report for at least six games to get credit for a season; otherwise, their contracts 'toll' and they move no closer to free agency." 

Additionally, Baltimore currently could use the franchise tag regarding Jackson's rights for 2024 "at 1.2 times his 2023 salary or at the as-yet-unknown value of the tag next year, whichever is greater" if the two sides don't come to terms on an agreement before the July 17 deadline for teams to sign tagged players. 

"Missing three games this season would reduce Jackson’s $32.4M salary to $26.7M," Sando continued. "Multiplying that reduced salary by 1.2 equals $32M, less than the value of the tag this year. Jackson would be losing cash now while forfeiting the 1.2 multiplier and betting that the 2024 tag price is high enough to make up the difference. That wouldn’t make much sense." 

Sando either directly or indirectly responded to how ESPN personality Dan Orlovsky, NFL insider Jason La Canfora, NBC Sports' Peter King and Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, all of whom had previously suggested Jackson could threaten to hold out through the start of regular-season play if he does not sign a deal with the Ravens ahead of the summer deadline. 

Sando is one of the knowledgeable individuals who pointed out earlier this week that Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts agreeing to a five-year extension reportedly worth up to $255M with $179.3M guaranteed negatively impacts Jackson's reported desire for a fully guaranteed contract. The one-time NFL Most Valuable Player has reportedly wanted to top the $230M in fully guaranteed money Deshaun Watson received from the Cleveland Browns since last year. 

Jackson can speak with other clubs about a deal while on the non-exclusive franchise tag. However, the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Washington Commanders, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders, San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions are among the teams that reportedly have decided against pursuing the 26-year-old signal-caller. 

In short, Jackson may not have any leverage as it pertains to negotiations with Baltimore -- unless he is willing to forfeit millions owed to him on the tag simply to make a point.