Inability to win close games sinking Raiders
What are the odds of a team's first four losses in a season being by one score? Asking for the Las Vegas Raiders.
They sit in the AFC West cellar after four painful defeats by a combined 14 points. In Week 1, Las Vegas rallied from a 14-point deficit against the Tennessee Titans and nearly tied the score before failing on a two-point conversion. In Week 5 against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Raiders were a two-point conversion away from taking the lead after giving up a 17-point lead. That try failed, too.
Three of the team's losses have come in regulation and none were by more than five points. Their biggest margin of defeat this season came after they built their biggest lead. They lost to the Arizona Cardinals by six despite leading by 20 at halftime.
The defense allowed Kyler Murray to look the best he has all season.
A fumble in overtime while Las Vegas was nearing position to attempt a potential winning field goal sealed its fate.
They are No. 15 in the league in point differential (-5) but hold just a 1-4 record. They rank ahead of two-loss Tennessee, Indianapolis and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Advanced metrics aren't as kind to the Raiders. Per Football Outsiders, their DVOA of -9.3 percent ranks No. 24. Per Pro Football Focus, they grade at 69.9 -- also 24th in the league. That data can be insightful in analyzing whether the team has been unlucky or bad. Analytics tells us the Raiders are the latter.
We didn't need the Raiders to remind us of the razor-thin margin that exists between winning and losing in the NFL. The league as a whole is seeing more close games than in previous years. That is likely no solace to a Raiders team with goals bigger than just being competitive in one-score games.
Odds are the team's early heartbreak will keep them out of the postseason. If the Raiders are to buck what's becoming a trend, they'll have to beat the house.
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