Inside the Broncos' Draft Class: Which Picks Are Primed to Hit Big?

The NFL draft has concluded, and there will be speculation for weeks about how good or bad each team performed. Grades will be applied without any of these draftees taking a snap in the league.

Ultimately, nobody knows which individual player will be great, which player will bust, or which late-round pick will surprise. That's why we need to examine positional probability by round based on draft history to understand the likelihood of success.

In so doing, the Denver Broncos' draft haul was better than it may have seemed at first glance.

After analyzing the last 14 drafts and calculating probabilities of becoming an impact player (based on a combination of All Pro and Pro Bowl selections) or a primary starter (started more than 50% of their time in the league), we can begin to predict the future based on when a player was selected and the position they play.

Let's apply it to Denver's draft class.

Round 1: Jahdae Barron | CB

The Broncos selecting a cornerback in the first round was a surprise. Regardless of need or wants, this position has fared well compared to other positions when selected between picks 18 and 22.

When all positions are included, the probability of becoming an impact player is 0.20, but when it's a cornerback, that probability increases to 0.29, the third-best out of all positions. That bodes well for Barron.

Round 2: RJ Harvey | RB

Unfortunately, running backs selected between picks 58 and 62 have not fared well over the past 14 years of the draft. None have become impact players.

If that selection criterion is widened to the second half of Round 2, the probability climbs moderately to 0.05, making it a slim chance that Harvey will become an impact player, based on the recent past. Several other positions have a higher probability, but including all positions, the probability of finding an impact player between picks 58 and 62 is 0.06.

The Broncos will hope that Harvey bucks the trend.

Round 3: Pat Bryant | WR

Interestingly, players selected in the first half of Round 3 have a higher probability of becoming an impact player than the back half of Round 2 at 0.11, and wide receiver is much better at 0.19.

Historically, wide receivers selected in the early part of the third round have found success, as it's the highest probability of any position. Bryant may have a shot at surprising a lot of draft analysts.

Round 3: Sai’vion Jones | DL/OLB

The back half of Round 3 has a very small probability of any position becoming an impact player. However, the probability of becoming a starting player is 0.27.

An edge rusher selected from picks 79 through 107 does have a decent chance, comparatively speaking, of becoming an impact player (0.1). It has nearly the same probability of becoming a starter as any other position, at 0.26. Jones could be that late-Round 3 gem.

Que Robinson (OLB) | Jeremy Crawshaw (P) | & Caleb Lohner (TE)

Over the past 14 drafts, the late-round selections have been made among a sea of prospects who either go on to become role players or did not stick in the NFL.  Edge rusher has a probability of 0.17 of becoming a starter when selected in Round 4, and tight end in Round 7 is very small at 0.03.  

Evaluating a punter is more difficult since they are not technically starters. There have been 22 punters selected in the time period analyzed, and not one in the sixth or seventh round has won a first-team All-Pro award or been invited to a Pro Bowl.

However, five of the 10 selected in those rounds have played in more than 70 games. It's more likely than not that these selections in Rounds 4 through 7 will be role players or off the Broncos within three seasons or less.

The Takeaway

The Broncos’ first and third-round selections are the most likely to have success in the NFL based on the recent past, and Jones has the most potential of becoming that hidden gem from Day 2. Based on probabilities, the Broncos had an above-average draft with the potential to be surprisingly good based on Jones’ positional value.