New England Patriots ceiling and floor for 2023

The New England Patriots haven't fared well in the post-Tom Brady era, and after having their second losing season in three years, 2023 will be crucial for the franchise's direction. How well they'll perform remains up for debate, but here's our prediction of the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Patriots this season: 

Ceiling: 9-8

Despite sportsbooks setting the Patriots' win total at 7.5 games, there are legitimate reasons to believe they'll surpass it. New England won eight games last season with a disastrous offense run by a defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia, who former Texans HC Bill O'Brien has since replaced. With a bounce-back season from QB Mac Jones and another strong year from RB Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots could finish with a winning record. 

Although the schedule isn't favorable, New England should have a solid record if it performs better when facing divisional opponents. Since Brady left for Tampa Bay in 2020, the Patriots are 9-9 against the AFC East during the regular season. With a sweep of New York and a split against Miami and Buffalo, the Patriots would have four impressive wins to give them confidence heading into winnable games. (Complete schedule analysis here). 

A few of New England's mid-season opponents provide advantageous matchups, particularly in Weeks 5 and 6 against New Orleans and Las Vegas. In Week 10, the Patriots head to Germany to face Indianapolis, and if history holds true, it should be another win as they're 3-0 in international games all-time. 

Floor: 6-11

While it's within the realm of possibility that the Patriots end the season above .500, many factors are conspiring against them, most notably their grueling schedule. According to NFL Research, the Patriots have the third-most difficult schedule based on their opponents' 2022 records.  

New England will be put to the test right away as it hosts reigning NFC champion Philadelphia in Week 1 before three challenging matchups with the Dolphins, Jets and Cowboys. Regardless of how taxing the Patriots' opening stretch will be, their post-Week 11 bye opponents present a greater challenge.

In their final seven games, the Patriots will take on four teams that made the playoffs last season, including a Week 15 clash with defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City. The three meetings with non-2022 playoff teams won't be easy, either. They'll play Pittsburgh (Week 14), Denver (Week 16) and the Jets (Week 18), all of whom had defenses ranked inside the top-15 in terms of fewest yards allowed a season ago.