Kansas City Chiefs ceiling and floor for 2023

The Kansas City Chiefs are atop the NFL after winning their second Super Bowl in four years, but they will have a target on their back as defending champs. At least two AFC contenders (Buffalo, Cincinnati) have the talent to knock them off.

How much better the Chiefs will be from a season ago, when they finished 14-3, is still up for debate. Here's our best guess at worst- and best-case scenarios for the Chiefs in 2023.

Ceiling: 13-4

Kansas City has won 12 games or more for five consecutive seasons and made eight straight playoff appearances. So it's reasonable to expect the Chiefs to win 12 or more games and capture the AFC's No. 1 seed again. 

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is at the height of his powers after earning his second MVP. In 17 games last season, he threw for 41 TDs, recorded a career-high 5,250 passing yards and logged a 105.2 passer rating, the NFL's second-best figure. The Chiefs traded star WR Tyreek Hill to Miami in 2022, which makes Mahomes' accomplishment more impressive and highlights how he elevates an offense.

Plus, Kansas City has a manageable schedule, the 16th-most difficult in the league, per NFL Research. Through the first four weeks of the season, the only playoff team the Chiefs face is the Jaguars, who they defeated 27-20 in the divisional round. Kansas City could start 3-1 or 4-0 and build momentum early. (Complete schedule analysis here.)