NFL best bets: Week 5 'Beat the Line' moves
If you're still skeptical about the importance of closing line value in the NFL, just take a look at our "Beat the Line" picks from Week 4. Last Monday, we took the Chicago Bears at +3.5 and the New York Jets-Kansas City Chiefs under at 43. Those lines moved as we predicted and closed Bears +3 and Jets-Chiefs under 41.5. And would you look at that? The Bears lost by three points and the "Sunday Night Football" game finished with 43 total points. You'd have gone 0-1-1 on those bets if you bet them on Sunday, but we went 1-0-1 thanks to our precious CLV.
It's been a great season so far in creating CLV early in the week and cashing tickets on Sunday, so let's keep it rolling with three more picks for Week 5.
2023 record: 5-3-4 CLV, 9-2-1 ATS
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Can I interest you in an AFC North under? Of course I can. The Steelers and Ravens have gone under 40.5 total points in five straight matchups against each other, and those games averaged just 32.0 points.
The Steelers have looked completely lost on offense to start the year. Pittsburgh ranks 27th in the NFL in yards per play (4.6), and the offense has scored only four touchdowns through four games. Now the Steelers have to go up against a Ravens defense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed (3.8). Oh, and quarterback Kenny Pickett injured his knee in Week 4 and won't be available for this game. It'll be the Mitchell Trubisky show in Week 5, which should help our cause even more.
This total should close below 40, so jump on the under now.
The bet to make: Under 40.5 (-115 FanDuel)
New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints
Not many bettors are rushing to the window to put their hard-earned money on the Patriots right now. New England is coming off an embarrassing 38-3 loss against the Dallas Cowboys, and Bill Belichick's squad is now 1-3 after four weeks. But that doesn't tell the full story.
The NFL dealt the Patriots a rough hand with their schedule to start the season. New England has faced the Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins and Cowboys, three of the top six or seven teams in the NFL, in the first four weeks. The Pats lost all three games, but they hung tough with the Eagles and Dolphins at home and had a chance to win both games in the fourth quarter.
This is a better team than the market is reflecting right now, and the Saints might be worse than their 2-2 record following losses to the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The bet to make: Patriots moneyline (-116 FD)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Next Sunday's matchup between the Rams and Eagles features two top-level quarterbacks facing two vulnerable secondaries. Matthew Stafford should have a field day against this Philly defense that ranks 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (260.8), and that came against Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield and Sam Howell.
There's not much the Rams can do to slow down the Eagles, either. Philadelphia has scored 25 points or more in seven straight games dating back to last year's divisional round. The Eagles will have no problem moving the ball against an inexperienced Rams defense. This total is already on the move, so lock in the over now before it hits 50.
The bet to make: Over 49.5 (-110 Bet365)
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