New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston (2). Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

NFL best bets: Week 4 'Beat the Line' moves

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated Sep 25, 2023 2:39 PM ET

Through three weeks in our season-long quest to beat the books, we've created three instances of positive closing line value and have gone 7-2 in nine picks. Not too shabby, huh?

Let's look ahead to Week 4 and make some early bets that should create CLV by Sunday afternoon.

2023 record: 3-2-4 CLV, 7-2 ATS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

The Saints were in control for three quarters against the Green Bay Packers in Week 3, but it all slipped away in an instant. After Derek Carr left the game in the second half with a shoulder injury, the Packers rebounded and rattled off 18 unanswered points to stun the Saints, 18-17.

According to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, Carr suffered an AC sprain in his throwing shoulder and could miss some time. I'd be shocked if Carr recovers in time to play in Week 4, so it'll likely be Jameis Winston under center against the Buccaneers. Grab the +3 now, because if the Bucs look good against the Philadelphia Eagles on "Monday Night Football," this number will be long gone by Tuesday morning.

The bet to make: Buccaneers +3 (-112 DraftKings)

Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears

I know, I know. No sports bettor with a pulse wants to touch the Bears right now. Chicago got bludgeoned by the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3 and has now been outscored, 106-47, through three games. Not great!

But this Broncos team isn't much better. Denver's defense just surrendered 70 (yes, 70) points to the Miami Dolphins, becoming the fourth team in NFL history to do so. These are the two worst teams in the NFL by a wide margin, and there's no reason one of them should be more than a three-point favorite, especially on the road.

The bet to make: Bears +3.5 (-118 FanDuel)

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets

The bad news about next week's "Monday Night Football" matchup is that we're being forced to watch Zach Wilson in primetime. The good news, however, is that we can continue to make money by fading him.

Since the start of last season, the Jets have gone under 43 points in 16 of 20 games. The combination of Wilson's ineptitude and a top-five defensive unit has created an under machine, and it doesn't seem as if New York will be benching their young quarterback anytime soon. Kansas City's defense has also exceeded expectations this season with only 40 points allowed through three games.

This total has already dropped a few points, but I'd be shocked if it stays at 43 all week.

The bet to make: Under 43 (-110 FD)

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Jack Dougherty

Jack Dougherty has been writing professionally since 2015, contributing to publications such as GoPSUSports. com, Centre Daily Times, Associated Press, and Sportscasting. com

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