NFL betting: Best and worst teams of the season ATS and O/U, plus Week 18 matchups to monitor

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 1/3/24

It's hard to believe we're already here, with just one week of the NFL regular season left. 17 weeks down, there's plenty of betting trends and data available for us to both examine and trust. The hope here is that we can find a few Week 18 games of interest by looking at the best and worst teams against the spread at against the totals.

Best NFL teams ATS this season

Detroit Lions (11-5)
Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Cleveland Browns (10-5-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)
Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Las Vegas Raiders (9-6-1)
Los Angeles Rams (9-6-1)
Chicago Bears (8-6-2)
Seattle Seahawks (8-6-2)

There's some teams you'd expect to see here, like the Lions, Ravens and Browns, and then there's some surprising squads, like the Raiders and Bears. Perhaps for Las Vegas and Chicago, these performances against the spread are reasons for optimism in 2024, as both are eliminated from the postseason this year.

Each team that has covered the spread in four or more games than not would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

Worst NFL teams ATS this season

Carolina Panthers (4-10-2)
Atlanta Falcons (5-11)
New Orleans Saints (5-10-1)
New England Patriots (5-10-1)
New York Jets (5-10-1)
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
Los Angeles Chargers (6-10)
Tennessee Titans (6-9-1)
Denver Broncos (6-9-1)
Washington Commanders (6-9-1)

Quite the representation here from the NFC South and AFC East, with the two divisions combining to form the worst six teams against the spread this season. Only Buffalo is pushing for a postseason spot at this point among the 10 teams above.

Best teams against the over

Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
Cleveland Browns (10-6)
Detroit Lions (10-6)
Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Miami, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Washington, Chicago, Cincinnati (9-7)

For much of the season, unders were reigning supreme in the NFL betting market. Because of that, lines adjusted, which has aided a rush of overs in recent weeks. 11 teams are hitting the over at a 56.3% rate or better now.

Best teams against the under

Carolina Panthers (11-5)
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
Tennessee Titans (11-5)
New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
Las Vegas Raiders (11-5)
Houston, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Buffalo, Atlanta (10-6)

Another five teams are 9-7 to the under, but we can't simply go ahead and list 20 total teams in this section. As you can see, unders have been the more profitable path for the majority of the league this season. Curiously, there's only a few postseason teams in this bunch.

Week 18 games of interest

ATS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers — The Buccaneers win the NFC South with a win, and one has to think they get there against this Carolina team. Tampa Bay won by only three against the Panthers a month ago, but we still lean the Bucs here to cover.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) — Neither team has much to play for here, but we'd recommend the Raiders, who are playing some inspired football under Antonio Pierce.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+3) — The game of the week is no doubt this one on Sunday night. The winner wins the AFC East, it's as high stakes as it comes. The betting market is on the Bills, and we can understand why, they're playing good football right now. However, Miami has been the better betting team ATS this year. The home 'dogs are enticing here.

Overs

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (38.5 points) — Be wary here, the Browns are locked into the fifth seed and might not be playing many of their starters. Perhaps that makes points look even better with a weaker Browns defense on the field. Two straight meetings between these two have gone under this total.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (44 points) — The Bears are playing well right now on both sides of the ball, and the Packers are pushing to secure a postseason spot. Earlier this season these two combined for 58 points, though we will note Chicago is playing better defense of late. Still, we like points in what could be a very exciting game.

Unders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (37.5 points) — This game is also intriguing from an under perspective. Their first meeting hit 39, so this total is right on the money. We lean the under.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (42 points) — It's possible for both teams to win the NFC South still if Tampa Bay loses to Carolina. Two straight games between these two have gone under, and we like this to be a tight one as well.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (35.5 points) — Keep in mind that Kansas City is locked into the No. 3 seed, and thus unlikely to play starters in this one. This game might be better left alone because of it.

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