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Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15). Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 18: Be wary of betting on these teams and games

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 1/4/24

There's a balance to be struck in the last week of the NFL regular season. It's not necessary to overreact and throw this week away as a wash due to "unpredictability," nor should you treat this as any old week and not consider varying levels of motivation.

Teams you should still reasonably trust in Week 18

If a team is eliminated from the postseason, one might think they have nothing to play for and thus will be resting starters. That is very hardly ever the case. Players are fighting for incentives, while coaches are fighting to keep their jobs. The season may be lost, but these individuals are all pushing to end their years on a high note and put out strong tape to further their careers in 2024-25 and beyond.

Consider what Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel had to say this week when asked about why it matters to try and win this week: "It (bleeping) sucks to lose, awful. That's why I want to win ... You want to win for the players that bust their tail, that's it."

If you think for a moment that the Titans are going to roll over and gift the rival Jaguars the division title, you are sadly mistaken.

So, while each of the following teams are eliminated from the postseason, they are mostly still going to be giving it their all in some fashion, though be sure to look around the league to see if any context clues are being shared by beat reporters or coaches.

Broncos
Bengals
Raiders
Jets
Titans
Chargers
Patriots
Bears
Giants
Commanders
Cardinals
Panthers

Teams to avoid in Week 18

There are a few examples of teams you'd want to avoid here, and that starts and ends with teams locked into their postseason seeding looking to rest starters in advance of a playoff push. We've already had multiple announcements of backup QBs getting the nod this weekend for each of these teams.

We recommend avoiding betting on these teams in Week 18:

Ravens (locked No. 1 seed in AFC)
Chiefs (locked No. 3 seed in AFC)
Browns (locked No. 5 seed in AFC)
49ers (locked No. 1 seed in NFC)
Rams (locked No. 6 or No. 7 seed in NFC)

Now, sure, you could look at teams like Kansas City and hope to find some betting value against a porous Chargers secondary, but you're not going to be able to trust player trends or team metrics. It will take a different level of creativity to nail some bets in these spots, making it safest to simply drop the games in which these teams are involved in.

Games that matter

There are a handful of games that matter for both teams that you can proceed as usual with, which we'll call out here.

Houston-Indianapolis
Minnesota-Detroit
Atlanta-New Orleans
Buffalo-Miami

There are also teams that are pushing to end their season on a high note or pushing for a playoff spot or better seed, making these games worth digging into: