NFL betting: Use these trends to help with your Week 13 ATS and total picks
There's only six regular-season weeks left in the NFL season, and as always, it's a good idea to study the betting trends as you prep your bets for Week 13. Below we highlight the best and worst betting teams, both against the spread and to the over, and then find us some overlaps that offer betting opportunity.
NFL against the spread betting trends
Best teams ATS
- Philadelphia Eagles (7-2-2)
- Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
- Minnesota Vikings (7-4-1)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)
- Detroit Lions (7-4)
- Indianapolis Colts (7-4)
- Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
- Miami Dolphins (7-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)
One of these things is not like the other! 10 of the 11 teams that are covering the spread at a 63% rate or better would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. The one outlier? The Tampa Bay Bucs, who currently sit at 4-7.
Is this a sign that perhaps Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers might sneak into the big dance? Despite their record, they're just one game back of first in the dreadful NFC South. Tampa Bay is +500 to win the division and still have a game against both the Falcons and Saints.
Worst teams ATS
- Carolina Panthers (1-8-2)
- New England Patriots (2-9)
- New Orleans Saints (2-8-1)
- Atlanta Falcons (3-8)
- Buffalo Bills (4-8)
- Los Angeles Chargers (4-7)
- New York Giants (4-7-1)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-6-1)
- New York Jets (4-6-1)
- Denver Broncos (4-6-1)
Besides the NFC South division leader that we just discussed, all 10 of these teams are currently out of the playoff picture, and the Panthers, Patriots and Giants in particular all figure to be at the very bottom of the NFL standings by season's end.
Week 13 overlaps
Detroit Lions (-4) at New Orleans Saints — After a disappointing Thanksgiving loss, we'd expect the Lions to come out with a spirited effort here against a Saints team that isn't very good. The Lions are 3-0 ATS as road favorites this year.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) — So begins the Buccaneers last stand to win this division, and a matchup against the Carolina Panthers could be just what the doctor ordered. For what it's worth, Tampa Bay is only 2-3 ATS at home this year.
NFL over/under betting trends
Best teams: Overs
- Dallas Cowboys (7-4)
- Detroit Lions (7-4)
- Indianapolis Colts (7-4)
- Washington Commanders (7-5)
- Arizona Cardinals (7-5)
- Chicago Bears (7-5)
The teams that consistently hit overs hasn't been a big list all year, but we're now up to six that are going over at a 58% rate or better, and an additional four clubs are at 6-5 to the over. There are differences here in why these teams are here.
For the Cowboys, they keep hitting the overs because they are blowing out inferior opponents. A team like Washington, however, is simply here because of a horrible defense and a pass-heavy offensive approach.
Best teams: Unders
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-2)
- Las Vegas Raiders (9-3)
- New York Giants (9-3)
- Minnesota Vikings (9-3)
- Carolina Panthers (8-3)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-3)
- Kansas City Chiefs (8-3)
- New Orleans Saints (8-3)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3)
- Tennessee Titans (8-3)
- New England Patriots (8-3)
- Buffalo Bills (8-4)
We could keep going, four more teams are 7-4 to the under, but we didn't want this to simply become a list of every single NFL team.
If you haven't been following these trends, it's very clearly the year of the under in the NFL, with far over half the league going under at a significant rate. Blindly betting the under in every single game up to this point would have you quite the profit at this stage.
Week 13 overlaps
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (37 points) — For the second time, this NFC South contest comes up as an intriguing look for betting purposes. This isn't even the lowest total of the weekend, that honor belongs to Falcons-Jets at just 34 points. Six of the past seven meetings between these two has gone over, though Tom Brady was the QB in most of those games.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (40 points) — New England continues to start and bench Mac Jones every single game as their offense cannot get anything going. This feels like a terrific time to load up the under, the Chargers could put up around 21-24 and still cash this under with room to spare.
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