NFL divisional round: 4 bets to target

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated Jan 15, 2024 11:30 PM ET

The NFL divisional round matchups are officially set, and we can't wait for another loaded weekend of playoff football. Looking ahead to the four matchups, here are the four early bets we're targeting for the divisional round.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens: Ravens -8.5 (-115 FanDuel)

It's not easy to bet against C.J. Stroud right now, but he can only carry this overmatched Texans team so far. The Ravens rank first in the NFL in points per game allowed, first in opponent average passer rating, first in yards allowed per pass attempt and third in sack percentage. They're going to put an emphasis on heating up Stroud with pressure and forcing the ball out of his hands quickly.

The Texans have been great against the run all year, but they're going to struggle against this passing attack that hit its stride down the stretch of the regular season. Stroud will need to be nearly perfect to keep up with this rested Ravens offense, and although that's possible, we're fine betting against it.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers: Over 50 (-112 DraftKings)

Jordan Love and this Packers offense have been on a tear since Thanksgiving. Green Bay is averaging 28.6 points over its last eight games, and seven of those games went over the closing total. The Packers are also coming off their best offensive performance of the year in which they put up 48 points and 415 yards of offense against the Cowboys.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers should be able to score at will against a Packers defense that ranks 27th in the NFL in defensive DVOA. Most of San Francisco's starters sat out in Week 18, so the offense is fresh off two straight bye weeks. The 49ers should have no problem reaching 30 points this weekend.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions: Buccaneers +5.5 (-108 FD)

The Buccaneers looked fantastic in their demolition of the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round, and they've quietly won six of their last seven games. Now they get to face a Lions team that's coming off the emotional high of winning its first playoff game in 32 years.

It won't be easy for Detroit to rebound from that celebration, and Tampa Bay can exploit this secondary that ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed. The Bucs should be able to keep up with the Lions and keep this game close throughout.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills: Chiefs moneyline (+130 ESPN BET)

Have we not learned our lesson by now?

Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog 10 times in his NFL career. He's 8-1-1 against the spread and 7-3 straight up in those games. The only other time Mahomes was an underdog in the playoffs was last year's Super Bowl, and we all remember how that ended.

This is a principle bet you simply have to take.

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