NFL futures, 2 Washington Commanders bets: Only as good as QBs
The Commanders have quality pieces throughout their roster, but a tough schedule and a bleak quarterback room tempers expectations ahead of 2023.
Commanders high-level odds
- Wins: Over 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-120)
- To Win Division: +1200
- To Win Conference: +4000
- To Win Super Bowl: +6500
Washington finished 2022 with a record of 8-8-1, just a game back of the New York Giants for the final Wild Card spot. The year was headlined, as so often is the case in Washington, by inconsistent quarterback play.
The Carson Wentz acquisition failed, and while Taylor Heinicke was a fine option who played in a bulk of Washington's wins, he isn't much of a long-term answer either and signed with Atlanta this offseason.
That opens the door for another year of mediocre quarterback play, which caps Washington's chances in 2023. It appears 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will be the starter for the year, competing with Jacoby Brissett for the starting job this summer.
Either option doesn't move the needle much, which is unfortunate when you consider the very quality group the Commanders have elsewhere.
The defense got terrific play out of their secondary last season, and first round rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes should help build on that. The defensive line is littered with first-round talents, and the hope is that Chase Young can return to be as effective as he was out the gate after a late-season 2021 ACL injury cost him most of 2022.
In that regard, Washington should be able to contain opposing offenses, but without quality quarterback play, it isn't likely to matter.
Terry McLaurin is an elite WR, and Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson round out an extremely respectable group of skill-position players. The offensive line is a looming issue, bringing in three new starters, all with question marks.
Two futures bets to make on the Washington Commanders
Under 6.5 wins (-120 DK)
Found under 'Team Futures'
Some regression could hit the Giants after they overperformed in 2022, and the depth of Dallas is slightly concerning, but this is still the worst team in the NFC East. The Commanders have some tough games on the docket this year, namely the entire AFC East, San Francisco, Seattle, and a few teams who could be better in 2023 in Chicago, Atlanta and Denver. That doesn't even include a pair of games each against Philly, Dallas and the Giants.
Looking at their schedule, beyond Week 1 hosting Arizona, I don't think it's crazy to suggest that Washington might be an underdog in every remaining game.
They're giving Sam Howell a chance to show what he can do, and one has to imagine the secondary hope there is to better position themselves in 2024 to draft a new quarterback. After an 8-8-1 season, 6-11 or worse feels right for the Commanders.
Terry McLaurin over 900.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
Found under 'Player Totals'
Come on. We don't believe much in Sam Howell just like the next person, but this feels like a disrespectful line for one of the NFL's best receivers.
McLaurin has exceeded 900 yards in all four of his NFL seasons, finishing with 1,050+ in three consecutive seasons, missing just three games across his four-year career.
So Howell is projected to be one of the league's worst starters, and the Washington wide receiver group does have quite a few mouths to feed, but McLaurin is still top-dog here. If you're a young quarterback hoping to make it, logic would suggest targeting your most talented receiver.
In a ridiculously small sample size that is one Howell start, he targeted McLaurin six times, connecting on three balls for 74 yards and a touchdown. McLaurin is going to get the football, and should he stay healthy, this line suggests he needs to average just 53 yards per game. We'll gladly put a stake on his over here.
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