Washington Commanders ceiling and floor for 2023

The Commanders haven’t made the playoffs since they won the NFC East with a 7-9 record in 2020. With new ownership looming, players and coaches know they’ll need to do better or else many of them may not be around for 2023.

Washington passed on taking a quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft and the job remains inexperienced Sam Howell’s to lose. Time will tell if the team made the right decision, but for now, here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Commanders in 2023.

Ceiling: 8-9

The Commanders haven’t won nine or more games since 2015, and their prospects for doing so in 2023 aren’t good (complete schedule analysis here). After scoring the ninth-fewest points per game last season (18.9), the team added only one offensive skill player through the NFL Draft, Kentucky running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. in the sixth round.  

To win eight games, Washington must rely on a defense that gave up just under 305 yards per game last year, the third-best number in the league. If the defense has a fault, it has been its inability to force turnovers. 

Washington had nine interceptions last season, the fourth-lowest total in the NFL. But that could change with cornerback Emmanuel Forbes on the team. The Commanders first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft had 14 interceptions in three years with Mississippi State. Six came in 2022. He returned three of them for touchdowns.

If Forbes can replicate his college success in the NFL, Washington should have no problem winning eight games in 2023.