NFL MVP futures: Can anyone catch Lamar Jackson?

The MVP race is down to one.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson appeared to wrap up the award after his monster game in Baltimore's 56-19 win over Miami that clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

He finished with two more touchdowns (five) than incompletions (three), going 18-of-21 for 321 yards and posting a perfect 158.3 passer rating.

Here is how the top five of the MVP race is shaking up, with each player's odds entering Week 17 in parentheses.

Odds provided by Action Network as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 31, 2023.

1. Lamar Jackson: -950 (-195)

Jackson was the midseason MVP, and his performances during the past two weeks solidified his case for a second Most Valuable Player award. He was also brilliant in Week 16 against the 49ers, going 23-of-35 for 252 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-19 win. Jackson performed his best in Baltimore's two biggest games, making him a worthy front-runner. 

2. Tua Tagovailoa: +1400 (+900)

It's surprising Tagovailoa's odds didn't drop further following his disappointing two-interception performance against the Ravens. In support of his case, Tagovailoa leads the league in passing (4,451 yards) and is second in completion percentage (69.6 percent). Yet while a massive Week 18 home game against Buffalo for the AFC East championship awaits, Tagovailoa is likely out of contention for MVP.

3. Dak Prescott: +2000 (+2000)

Prescott has the most touchdowns (32) in the league and has a slight advantage in passer rating (104.2) over Jackson (102.7), while also ranking second in expected points added per play. (Jackson ranks 13th.) Despite being overshadowed in Week 17 because of terrible officiating, Prescott is arguably the most legitimate threat to Jackson's MVP claim. 

4. Christian McCaffrey: +2500 (+500)

The league's leader in yards from scrimmage (1,932) and touchdowns (21) entering Week 17, McCaffrey had a pedestrian (by his standards) performance against the Commanders, finishing with 18 touches, 91 yards and, most shockingly, no touchdowns. He shouldn't go home empty-handed during the NFL Honors ceremony on Feb. 8, 2024, Per Action Network, he's the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year (-250).

5. Josh Allen: +2500 (+800) 

No one can question Allen's value to the Bills. He is Buffalo. His up-and-down season has featured some brilliant performances - like Week 4 against the Dolphins - and clunkers, including Week 17's 27-21 win against the Patriots when he finished 15-of-30 for 169 yards and one interception. Allen can still lead the Bills from 6-6 to a division title, but he's probably too far behind Jackson entering Week 18 to win MVP, too.