NFL Playoffs: Wiesguy's 2 Picks and a Prop for Cowboys-49ers

Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 22, 2023
6:30 PM ET
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Spread: San Francisco -4
Total: 46 

These teams missed each other this season. Like all of the other games this weekend though, the markets are trying to get you to bet a dead number. Once again I am falling for it. 

Spread Pick: 49ers -4

Rookie QB Brock Purdy has been fantastic since taking over the starting job for San Francisco. Unless you think he is going to turn into a pumpkin against Dallas I don't see how you fade the 49ers on Sunday. There are just too many advantages across the field and he has proven to be so good at avoiding mistakes. Coaching is such an advantage for San Francisco too. I would much rather back Brock than back Dak this weekend. Dallas might show well but it won't be enough. 

Total Pick: Under 46

San Francisco has shown that when they are at their best they are creating mistakes from their opponents and converting. Both of these teams do want to run the ball though, and I think that is going to limit some scoring. The last data point was a 23-16 win for SF in last year's playoffs and I don't see much more scoring than that. Whichever team is leading late is going to be able to take the air out of the ball. I like 27-14 for San Francisco. 

Prop Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

This one is all about relative value. For this week, this number is the same as that of fellow receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Last year in the playoffs Aiyuk did wind up with more yards than Samuel but at this stage of their careers, and with the size of the game, I am more confident they are going to feature their top playmaker. Both can have solid productive days.