NFL rookie head-to-head bets: More receiving yards between Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The NFL futures market is packed with varying bets from season-long player props to when a team will lose their first game. One such interesting market was recently posted, looking at who between the top rookie WRs will finish their first season with more receiving yards.
There is a similar market for Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, which we covered a few weeks back.
Jordan Addison vs. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The bet available to us is who between Addison and Smith-Njigba will have more regular-season receiving yards, found under the "Season Matchups" tab on DraftKings. Addison (-125) is the slight favorite to Smith-Njigba (-105).
Smith-Njigba was the first receiver taken in 2023 NFL Draft, going No. 20 to Seattle and setting off a chain reaction that saw four straight WRs get picked, concluding with Addison at No. 24 to Minnesota.
The fit for Smith-Njigba in Seattle is intriguing, but there is quite the competition for targets with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf both in place on the Seahawks offense - plus TE Noah Fant. Metcalf led the Seahawks with 141 targets last year and Lockett had 117. WR3, Marquise Goodwin, got just 42 targets from Geno Smith.
Where will Smith-Njigba's volume come from? If one of Lockett or Metcalf misses time, his role becomes tantalizing, but as it currently stands, it may be a relatively quiet year from the rookie from Ohio State.
Addison joins an offense with 2022 Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson, and the bulk of the targets and yards will once again flow through Jefferson on the Vikings offense. The difference for Addison is that he figures to slot in to WR2 duties on this offense, an offense that likes to throw the football.
Only two teams threw the football more often than Minnesota last season, and Adam Thielen's 107 targets from last season are now up for grabs with Thielen joining Carolina. Thielen has averaged 6.9 targets per game in the three seasons since Jefferson was drafted, and if the bulk of that volume goes to Addison, he's likely seeing 100+ targets should he stay healthy.
That solidified role gives us the confidence to roll with the young Vikings WR over the first receiver taken in the draft.
The bet: Jordan Addison more yards than Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-125 DraftKings)
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