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NFL futures: Season-long passing yards props up for the top two picks in the draft

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 5/4/23

The NFL futures market has started opening up, and more and more options will keep being added to the board. From awards to team's wins to season-long statistics, we'll cover it all from now until training camp.

One betting market that caught our eye was the season-long passing yards props. There aren't many quarterbacks currently listed, but two who are? The top two picks in this past draft, Bryce Young and CJ Stroud.

Season-long projections for Young and Stroud

Lines are courtesy of DraftKings. Found under 'Player Totals' on the NFL page.

Bryce Young: Over/under 3750.5 passing yards
CJ Stroud: Over/under 3675.5 passing yards

The all-time rookie QB passing yards record belongs to Andrew Luck, who threw for 4,374 yards in 2012. Justin Herbert is next, as he threw for 4,336 yards in 2021 in just 15 games. The 17th game is an important distinction here when comparing a season-long projection with past history. Mac Jones tossed 3,801 yards in 2021 with help from that 17th game.

Some other recent rookie QBs worth noting before we dive into these numbers: Trevor Lawrence finished his first season with 3,641 yards and Kyler Murray finished his 2019 rookie season with 3,722 yards.

Bryce Young

Bryce Young tossed 4,872 yards in 15 games during his Heisman-winning 2021 season, following that up with 3,328 yards in 12 games this past year.

Young no doubt has the talent, but one has to wonder if he has the supporting cast to post such gaudy stats in Year One. The receiving room is looking like Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Terrace Marshall and rookie Jonathan Mingo — a cromulent group, but one that lacks a star.

The offensive line has some promising pieces, and RB Miles Sanders joined the team this offseason to help the rushing attack.

Carolina ranked fourth-lowest last season in passing yards/game, averaging just 176.2. They found themselves in the same spot in 2021, averaging only 190.5 passing yards/game.

Frank Reich is now in town, and the Panthers have built a strong group of offensive coaches, notably Josh McCown as the quarterbacks coach.

We expect a more pass-happy offensive scheme for the Panthers as they look to test out their new investment in Young. The Colts, led by Reich, threw the football at the eighth-highest frequency last season.

We'll take a chance on Young's over here.

Our choice: Bryce Young over 3750.5 passing yards (-105 DK)

CJ Stroud

We're a bit more hesitant to back CJ Stroud's season-long passing yards over. His college statistics were superb, throwing for 8,123 over the past two seasons.

We just see this Houston team as a few pieces away from being competitive. This first season is all about growth from their young pieces and confirming that Stroud is indeed their guy. Davis Mills, albeit a quarterback not nearly as talented, failed to eclipse 3,200 yards in either of his last two seasons with this team.

DeMeco Ryans comes from San Francisco, a team that focuses on the run game as a pivotal part of their offense. If he brings that philosophy with him to Houston, it may be a big Dameon Pierce season at running back.

Stroud's WR group consists of Robert Woods, a 31-year-old coming off a pair of down years, Nico Collins, a fine yet unspectacular WR, and John Metchie, who hasn't played a professional snap yet.

Our choice: CJ Stroud under 3675.5 passing yards (-115 DK)

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