NFL Super Wild Card Weekend: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins betting picks, preview
The NFL playoffs are here, and we've got a banger of a matchup slated for Saturday night when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. Let's dive into the AFC wild-card battle and target a two-pack of bets for Chiefs-Dolphins.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins betting odds, preview
Spread: Chiefs -4.5, Over/under: 44, Moneyline: Chiefs -225 | Dolphins +188
Before we begin, let us remind you that Saturday night's matchup won't be on cable television like the other five games. Chiefs-Dolphins will air exclusively on Peacock, which is a major bummer for those who don't have a subscription to the streaming service.
As for the game itself, the biggest storyline leading up is the weather report at Arrowhead Stadium. The temperature in Kansas City is expected to dip down to four degrees in the second half, with the wind chill reaching as low as -14. That, combined with the injury uncertainty surrounding Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Waddle, Xavien Howard, Jevon Holland, and others, has caused this spread to balloon to -4.5.
It might not be done moving. The Dolphins finished the regular season with the second-best scoring offense in football, but they averaged just 17.7 points in their six games against playoff teams. Miami went 1-5 in those contests.
The Chiefs haven't looked very good down the stretch, either. Kansas City went 4-4 to finish the regular season, but many of the starters will be coming in fresh after sitting out last week's finale against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The reigning Super Bowl champs clearly have the advantage in this matchup.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins betting picks
Under 44 (-110 BetMGM)
There's simply too much evidence pointing toward a low-scoring game on Saturday night. The Dolphins offense has looked pedestrian against playoff teams all year, and Miami managed just 14 points against this Chiefs defense earlier in the season. Oh, and that was in perfect weather. It's hard to imagine a warm-weather team being more effective in below-freezing temperatures.
As for the Chiefs offense, it just doesn't have the same explosiveness we've seen over the last few years. Travis Kelce is finally starting to look his age, and we don't trust any of the receiving weapons to break the game open.
Tua Tagovailoa under 21.5 completions (-105 FanDuel)
The path to victory for the Dolphins in this matchup is to pound the rock on the ground. The Chiefs rank fourth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, sixth in completions allowed per game and eighth in completion percentage allowed. Kansas City is surrendering 4.5 yards per carry, though, which ranks 24th in the league.
Tagovailoa went 21-34 passing against the Chiefs in their first meeting. With freezing temperatures and wind in the forecast, it will be even tougher for the Dolphins to move the ball consistently through the air this time around.
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