The NFL Draft is just a little more than 24 hours away, so naturally, the rumors are hotter than ever.
One of the most recent -and surprising- rumors is The Athletic's Diana Russini's statement that teams in the top-5 of the 2024 NFL Draft believe the Denver Broncos would be willing to part ways with draft picks and All-Pro cornerback, Pat Surtain II, so they can move up into the top-5 and select a quarterback.
The Broncos just approved Surtain's fifth-year option for 2025 on Tuesday, which is currently projected to be $19,802,000, per Over The Cap. The acquiring team would be on the hook for Surtain's 2024 salary, worth $3,518,565, total, in base salary and a roster bonus, and whatever the final number for 2025 turns out to be.
Most teams picking in the top five believe the Broncos could make a big swing with a package that could even include star cornerback and fifth-year option pickup Pat Surtain II and more players on expiring deals if Payton’s true love is there. - Diana Russini, The Athletic
What could a trade package including Surtain look like?
The soon-to-be fourth-year player is one of the NFL's top cornerbacks, so he wouldn't come cheaply. That obviously helps the Broncos, who don't want to trade away a bunch of draft capital due to the lack of said capital over the last couple of years and the current state of the roster/team's salary cap.
It's extremely likely the Broncos would net the equivalent to a first-rounder in a hypothetical trade, with a second-rounder being worst-case scenario. Not only is he a borderline elite player, the fact the acquiring team gets him for so cheap in Year 1 and then has the flexibility to make a decision on a contract extension in 2025 or riding the year out is a big factor that bodes well for said team.
And as it turns out, the Arizona Cardinals have two first-round picks, a need for a top corner, and they don't need a quarterback. Meaning, they wouldn't mind trading back a few spots in order to get Surtain, who would essentially represent the No. 4 pick for them and they'd still have pick Nos. 12 and 27 overall.
They also have the ammo to trade back up into the top-6 or top-7 to snag one of the "Big Three" receivers - it ultimately makes way too much sense. So, what would a hypothetical trade package, including Surtain, look like?
The Cardinals receive:
- CB Pat Surtain
- Pick No. 12 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft
- Pick No. 121 overall (fourth round) in the 2024 NFL Draft
The Broncos receive:
- Pick No. 4 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft
- Pick No. 71 overall (third round) in the 2024 NFL Draft
In the above hypothetical, Surtain is valued at pick No. 20 overall, which is worth 269 points on Rich Hill's draft trade value chart. At the end of the day, the Cardinals net +83 points, which is the equivalent of the 63rd overall pick - a second-rounder. This is a very realistic scenario that makes sense for both sides, as the Broncos turn what was their fourth-rounder in to a Day 2 pick at No. 71 in Round 3.
In all, it makes most sense for the Broncos to stick at 12 and hope a QB falls to them and if not, take the best player available. Premium corners are so valuable and so hard to find - keeping Surtain involves far more logic than trading him.
But we all know Sean Payton isn't a guy who's afraid to go after what he wants and if he wants one of these QBs bad enough then he'll do what it takes, within reasonable limits, to get him.
And the above trade is certainly in "within reasonable limits" territory.
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