NFL Week 2: Three touchdown props for Sunday
While performance from one week of the NFL season isn't everything, it does help to show us two things. One, we can see the players that are being utilized in their offenses, and two, which defenses are carrying over 2022 struggles into the fresh year.
I touched on the touchdown targets that look best earlier this week on my Substack, and I'm looking to target 2022 targets that also allowed a touchdown to that same position in Week 1. After that check, it was about finding usage rates and roles that look best. What's left are three names for this Sunday's action.
All touchdown bets are half-unit wagers unless specified otherwise.
Rachaad White (+145 DraftKings)
Last season, Chicago allowed 23 touchdowns to running backs, which was good for second-most in the NFL. They kept that vulnerability going in Week 1, allowing Aaron Jones to score twice, once on the ground and once through the air.
Logically, I want to continue targeting them, and luckily for us there is a clear lead back in this Tampa Bay offense: Rachaad White.
White was on the field for 54 snaps in Week 1 (to Sean Tucker's 10), carrying the ball 17 times and seeing two targets. Two of those carries came in the red zone, and White is definitely expected to be the guy getting those touches should they be in close.
Zack Moss (+210 DraftKings)
Zack Moss missed Week 1 for Indianapolis but is set to return, and he should shoulder lead back duties in his first game, as Deon Jackson is more of a pass-catching back.
Moss can fill in that bruiser role that can help us. Even with Jonathan Taylor in the fold, Moss still saw 16 red zone carries last season, all of which were taken inside the 10-yard line.
That should serve us well here against a Houston defense that allowed the most touchdowns last season to RBs, and three in Week 1. Tack on that neither defense is too strong and we should see some movement down the field, and Moss should have plenty of opportunities on Sunday. This price feels like a gift.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+300 FanDuel)
I'm going to have to take a chance on some larger odds, and with DeAndre Hopkins banged up and questionable, it's enough to move Nick Westbrook-Ikhine over the finish line.
The Titans receiver saw seven targets in Week 1, two of which came in the red zone. NWI, as he will henceforth be referred to as, has popped up a few times for me this week.
One was from touchdowns, as the Chargers just let up three touchdowns to wide receivers last week and were one of the worst secondaries last season at limiting big plays. That big play element is what really catches my eye here. NWI is the deep-threat in this offense, leading the team last year with a 13.7 aDOT and 15.9 yards/catch.
He very well could find himself breaking off a long gain or two considering the volume he saw last week, and against this secondary, I'm willing to take a chance on his touchdown.
Year-to-date: 1-6 (-1.73u)
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